bayesRatings publishes forecasts: our best estimate of how future games might go. Here's what they are, what they aren't, and how to use them sensibly.
Information and entertainment only
Everything on this site is for information and entertainment. It is not betting, financial or legal advice, and nothing here tells you to place a bet. Any decision you make is yours.
No guarantees
A 70% forecast means the other side wins about 3 times in 10. Upsets are part of sports. Our model only knows game results; it doesn't know about injuries, lineups, starting pitchers or goalies, rest, or weather, and early-season forecasts lean on last season. We grade every forecast in public on the scorecard, but past results don't promise future ones. Data can also be late or wrong, and we can make mistakes.
Kalshi market prices
Next to some forecasts we show the Kalshi market price for comparison. It is not used in our model. A market price is what traders are paying, in cents, including fees and trading costs. It is not the chance of winning, and a gap between our forecast and the price is not a recommendation to trade.
Affiliate and referral links
Some links on this site may be affiliate or referral links, marked as partners or sponsored. If you sign up through one, we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. Partners never see or change our forecasts, and our numbers are the same whether or not a partner is shown.
Play responsibly
You must be 21 or older (18+ where permitted) and follow the laws where you live. Only risk what you can afford to lose. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Questions about how the forecasts are made? See how it works.