Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians prediction, 2026-10-17 (MLB)

← MLB / Oct 17 / TB at CLE

Away · 102−66 Tampa Bay Rays #5 in MLB · 51% to win

Home · 90−80 Cleveland Guardians #10 in MLB · 49% to win

SAT 7:00P CT · Oct 17 MLB Progressive Field

The Forecast

Kalshi latest price at 8:01 AM CT, next to our model

Tampa Bay Rays 51%

Cleveland Guardians 49%

Chance to win, from our model

← TB even CLE → Kalshi market
TB 52% · CLE 48% Our forecast
TB 51% · CLE 49%

	TB	CLE
Our chance	51%	49%
Our fair odds	−106	+106
Kalshi chance market	52%	48%
Kalshi odds market	−111	+111
Edge (ours − Kalshi)	−1.1 pts	+1.1 pts
Kalshi bid / ask	52¢ / 53¢	47¢ / 48¢
Expected runs	3.9	3.7

Expected margin: about even · Expected total: 7.6. Fair odds are the betting odds that match our forecast.

Kalshi market (latest price, updated 8:01 AM CT): Kalshi chance is the middle of each team's bid and ask, scaled so both teams add to 100% (the market's fee margin removed). It's a market price, not the true chance of winning.

Kalshi market price today

CLE price in cents (TB is roughly 100 minus it), 11:00 PM CT to 7:40 AM CT

chart runs 37¢ to 57¢latest 48¢

— Kalshi market price for CLE - - Our forecast: CLE 49% to win. The price is what the market charges, not the chance of winning.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 168+ games

TB·CLE

+0.21

rating (0 = average)

+0.07

4.5

runs / game

4.2

4.0

runs allowed / game

4.1

102−66

season record

90−80

58−27

home record

43−42

44−39

away record

47−38

streak

6−4

last 10

6−4

8.6

hits / game

7.9

1.03

home runs / game

0.99

3.1

walks drawn / game

3.6

7.1

batter strikeouts / game

7.9

8.2

pitcher strikeouts / game

9.6

0.55

errors / game

0.51

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 4−6

Oct 15at CLECLE 3 − 2post

Oct 13at TBTB 3 − 1post

Oct 12at TBCLE 7 − 3post

Jul 26at TBTB 1 − 0

Jul 25at TBTB 3 − 0

Jul 24at TBTB 11 − 3

Apr 29at CLECLE 3 − 1

Apr 28at CLETB 1 − 0

Apr 27at CLETB 3 − 2

Sep 7, 2025at TBCLE 2 − 1

Rating Trend

TB · CLE · 200 days

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1

Oct 15at CLE2 − 3L

Oct 13vs CLE3 − 1W

Oct 12vs CLE3 − 7L

Oct 7at NYY4 − 3W

Oct 5vs NYY5 − 2W

Oct 3vs NYY1 − 0W

Sep 27at PHI3 − 7L

Sep 26at PHI12 − 1W

Sep 25at PHI2 − 0W

Sep 24at NYY4 − 6L

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1

Oct 15vs TB3 − 2W

Oct 13at TB1 − 3L

Oct 12at TB7 − 3W

Oct 10vs CHW2 − 0W

Oct 8at CHW9 − 5W

Oct 7at CHW9 − 3W

Oct 5vs CHW3 − 4L

Oct 3vs CHW0 − 3L

Sep 27at KC2 − 3L

Sep 26at KC11 − 5W