Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Oct 16 / MIN at MIA
Away Minnesota Timberwolves #9 in NBA  ·  52% to win
at
Home Miami Heat #16 in NBA  ·  48% to win
WED 6:30P CT · Oct 16 NBA Kaseya Center

The Forecast

Updated Oct 16
Minnesota Timberwolves 52%
Miami Heat 48%

Chance to win, from our model

MINMIA
Chance to win52%48%
Expected points117.9118.1
Fair odds−109+109

Expected margin: MIA by 0.2 · Expected total: 236.0. Fair odds are the betting odds that match our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season
MIN·MIA
+0.39
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
5−5
last 10
5−5

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 2−8
Jan 6at MINMIN 122 − 94
Jan 3at MIAMIN 125 − 115
Mar 7, 2025at MIAMIN 106 − 104
Nov 10, 2024at MINMIA 95 − 94
Dec 18, 2023at MIAMIN 112 − 108
Oct 28, 2023at MINMIN 106 − 90
Dec 26, 2022at MIAMIA 113 − 110
Nov 21, 2022at MINMIN 105 − 101
Mar 12, 2022at MIAMIN 113 − 104
Nov 24, 2021at MINMIN 113 − 101

Rating Trend

MIN · MIA · 203 days

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 15vs SA109 − 139L
May 12at SA97 − 126L
May 10vs SA114 − 109W
May 8vs SA108 − 115L
May 6at SA95 − 133L
May 4at SA104 − 102W
Apr 30vs DEN110 − 98W
Apr 27at DEN113 − 125L
Apr 25vs DEN112 − 96W
Apr 23vs DEN113 − 96W

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 12vs ATL143 − 117W
Apr 10at WSH140 − 117W
Apr 9at TOR114 − 128L
Apr 7at TOR95 − 121L
Apr 4vs WSH152 − 136W
Apr 1vs BOS129 − 147L
Mar 30vs PHI119 − 109W
Mar 29at IND118 − 135L
Mar 27at CLE128 − 149L
Mar 25at CLE120 − 103W