Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Oct 16 / DEN at OKC
Away Denver Nuggets #6 in NBA  ·  27% to win
at
Home Oklahoma City Thunder #1 in NBA  ·  73% to win
THU 8:30P CT · Oct 16 NBA Paycom Center

The Forecast

Updated Oct 16
Denver Nuggets 27%
Oklahoma City Thunder 73%

Chance to win, from our model

DENOKC
Chance to win27%73%
Expected points112.7120.6
Fair odds+272−272

Expected margin: OKC by 7.9 · Expected total: 233.3. Fair odds are the betting odds that match our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season
DEN·OKC
+0.52
rating (0 = average)
+1.30
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
6−4
last 10
6−4

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OKC 7−3
Apr 10at DENDEN 127 − 107
Mar 9at OKCOKC 129 − 126
Feb 27at OKCOKC 127 − 121
Feb 1at DENOKC 121 − 111
May 18, 2025at OKCOKC 125 − 93post
May 15, 2025at DENDEN 119 − 107post
May 13, 2025at OKCOKC 112 − 105post
May 11, 2025at DENOKC 92 − 87post
May 9, 2025at DENDEN 113 − 104post
May 7, 2025at OKCOKC 149 − 106post

Rating Trend

DEN · OKC · 203 days

DEN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 30at MIN98 − 110L
Apr 27vs MIN125 − 113W
Apr 25at MIN96 − 112L
Apr 23at MIN96 − 113L
Apr 20vs MIN114 − 119L
Apr 18vs MIN116 − 105W
Apr 12at SA128 − 118W
Apr 10vs OKC127 − 107W
Apr 8vs MEM136 − 119W
Apr 6vs POR137 − 132W

OKC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
May 30vs SA103 − 111L
May 28at SA91 − 118L
May 26vs SA127 − 114W
May 24at SA82 − 103L
May 22at SA123 − 108W
May 20vs SA122 − 113W
May 18vs SA115 − 122L
May 11at LAL115 − 110W
May 9at LAL131 − 108W
May 7vs LAL125 − 107W