Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Oct 16 / DET at MIA
Away Detroit Pistons #5 in NBA  ·  60% to win
at
Home Miami Heat #16 in NBA  ·  40% to win
FRI 7:00P CT · Oct 16 NBA Kaseya Center

The Forecast

Updated Oct 16
Detroit Pistons 60%
Miami Heat 40%

Chance to win, from our model

DETMIA
Chance to win60%40%
Expected points117.4113.9
Fair odds−151+151

Expected margin: DET by 3.6 · Expected total: 231.3. Fair odds are the betting odds that match our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season
DET·MIA
+0.73
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
6−4
last 10
5−5

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 6−4
Mar 8at MIAMIA 121 − 110
Jan 1at DETMIA 118 − 112
Nov 29, 2025at MIADET 138 − 135
Mar 19, 2025at MIADET 116 − 113
Dec 16, 2024at DETDET 125 − 124
Nov 12, 2024at DETDET 123 − 121
Oct 28, 2024at MIAMIA 106 − 98
Mar 17, 2024at DETMIA 104 − 101
Mar 15, 2024at DETMIA 108 − 95
Mar 5, 2024at MIAMIA 118 − 110

Rating Trend

DET · MIA · 203 days

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 17vs CLE94 − 125L
May 15at CLE115 − 94W
May 13vs CLE113 − 117L
May 11at CLE103 − 112L
May 9at CLE109 − 116L
May 7vs CLE107 − 97W
May 5vs CLE111 − 101W
May 3vs ORL116 − 94W
May 1at ORL93 − 79W
Apr 29vs ORL116 − 109W

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 12vs ATL143 − 117W
Apr 10at WSH140 − 117W
Apr 9at TOR114 − 128L
Apr 7at TOR95 − 121L
Apr 4vs WSH152 − 136W
Apr 1vs BOS129 − 147L
Mar 30vs PHI119 − 109W
Mar 29at IND118 − 135L
Mar 27at CLE128 − 149L
Mar 25at CLE120 − 103W