Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Oct 17 / MIA at CHA
Away Miami Heat #16 in NBA  ·  42% to win
at
Home Charlotte Hornets #13 in NBA  ·  58% to win
SAT 5:00P CT · Oct 17 NBA Spectrum Center

The Forecast

Updated Oct 17
Miami Heat 42%
Charlotte Hornets 58%

Chance to win, from our model

MIACHA
Our chance42%58%
Our fair odds+137−137
Expected points114.6117.2

Expected margin: CHA by 2.7 · Expected total: 231.8. Fair odds are the betting odds that match our forecast.

Kalshi market: No Kalshi market yet.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season
MIA·CHA
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
5−5
last 10
6−4

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHA 2−8
Mar 17at CHACHA 136 − 106
Mar 6at CHAMIA 128 − 120
Nov 7, 2025at MIAMIA 126 − 108
Oct 28, 2025at MIAMIA 144 − 117
Mar 23, 2025at MIAMIA 122 − 105
Mar 10, 2025at MIACHA 105 − 102
Nov 27, 2024at CHAMIA 98 − 94
Oct 26, 2024at CHAMIA 114 − 106
Jan 14, 2024at MIAMIA 104 − 87
Dec 13, 2023at MIAMIA 115 − 104

Rating Trend

MIA · CHA · 204 days

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 12vs ATL143 − 117W
Apr 10at WSH140 − 117W
Apr 9at TOR114 − 128L
Apr 7at TOR95 − 121L
Apr 4vs WSH152 − 136W
Apr 1vs BOS129 − 147L
Mar 30vs PHI119 − 109W
Mar 29at IND118 − 135L
Mar 27at CLE128 − 149L
Mar 25at CLE120 − 103W

CHA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 12at NY110 − 96W
Apr 10vs DET100 − 118L
Apr 7at BOS102 − 113L
Apr 5at MIN122 − 108W
Apr 3vs IND129 − 108W
Apr 2vs PHX127 − 107W
Mar 31at BKN117 − 86W
Mar 29vs BOS99 − 114L
Mar 28vs PHI114 − 118L
Mar 26vs NY114 − 103W