at
The Forecast
Kalshi latest price at 8:02 AM CT, next to our modelBuffalo Sabres 49%
Montreal Canadiens 51%
Chance to win, from our model
← BUF
even
MTL →
Kalshi market
BUF 44% · MTL 56% Our forecast
BUF 49% · MTL 51%
BUF 44% · MTL 56% Our forecast
BUF 49% · MTL 51%
| BUF | MTL | |
|---|---|---|
| Our chance | 49% | 51% |
| Our fair odds | +104 | −104 |
| Kalshi chance market | 44% | 56% |
| Kalshi odds market | +130 | −130 |
| Edge (ours − Kalshi) | +5.4 pts | −5.4 pts |
| Kalshi bid / ask | 43¢ / 44¢ | 56¢ / 57¢ |
| Expected goals | 3.4 | 3.3 |
Expected margin: about even · Expected total: 6.7. Fair odds are the betting odds that match our forecast.
Kalshi market (latest price, updated 8:02 AM CT): Kalshi chance is the middle of each team's bid and ask, scaled so both teams add to 100% (the market's fee margin removed). It's a market price, not the true chance of winning.
Kalshi market price today
MTL price in cents (BUF is roughly 100 minus it), 11:00 PM CT to 6:09 AM CTchart runs 43¢ to 65¢latest 56¢
— Kalshi market price for MTL - - Our forecast: MTL 51% to win. The price is what the market charges, not the chance of winning.
Team Comparison
2026–27 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
BUF·MTL
+0.18
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
3.0
goals / game
3.3
3.8
goals allowed / game
3.9
4−4
season record
3−4
3−2
home record
2−2
1−2
away record
1−2
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
3−7
26.9
shots / game
28.6
47.4
faceoff %
51.6
20.1
hits / game
21.1
10.9
blocked shots / game
12.4
2.9
takeaways / game
4.4
17.0
giveaways / game
15.3
Head to Head
last 10 meetings · MTL 6−4Oct 13at MTLMTL 4 − 3 SO
May 18at BUFMTL 3 − 2 OTpost
May 16at MTLBUF 8 − 3post
May 14at BUFMTL 6 − 3post
May 12at MTLBUF 3 − 2post
May 10at MTLMTL 6 − 2post
May 8at BUFMTL 5 − 1post
May 6at BUFBUF 4 − 2post
Jan 31at BUFMTL 4 − 2
Jan 22at MTLBUF 4 − 2
Rating Trend
BUF · MTL · 18 daysBUF · Last 10
5−5 · streak W1Oct 15at TOR5 − 4W
Oct 13at MTL3 − 4L
Oct 12vs FLA5 − 3W
Oct 10vs UTAH1 − 4L
Oct 8vs DAL0 − 4L
Oct 6vs MIN3 − 2W
Oct 3vs CHI4 − 3W
Oct 1at CBJ3 − 6L
May 18vs MTL2 − 3L
May 16at MTL8 − 3W
MTL · Last 10
3−7 · streak L1Oct 14at WSH4 − 5L
Oct 13vs BUF4 − 3W
Oct 10vs DET1 − 0W
Oct 8vs NSH2 − 5L
Oct 6vs CAR4 − 6L
Oct 3at PIT5 − 6L
Sep 29at TOR3 − 2W
May 29at CAR1 − 6L
May 27vs CAR0 − 4L
May 25vs CAR2 − 3L