New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, 2026-10-17 (NHL)

← NHL / Oct 17 / NYI at TOR

Away · 3−4 New York Islanders #20 in NHL · 49% to win

Home · 3−5 Toronto Maple Leafs #26 in NHL · 51% to win

SAT 6:00P CT · Oct 17 NHL Scotiabank Arena

The Forecast

Kalshi latest price at 8:01 AM CT, next to our model

New York Islanders 49%

Toronto Maple Leafs 51%

Chance to win, from our model

← NYI even TOR → Kalshi market
NYI 45% · TOR 55% Our forecast
NYI 49% · TOR 51%

	NYI	TOR
Our chance	49%	51%
Our fair odds	+105	−105
Kalshi chance market	45%	55%
Kalshi odds market	+120	−120
Edge (ours − Kalshi)	+3.3 pts	−3.3 pts
Kalshi bid / ask	45¢ / 46¢	54¢ / 55¢
Expected goals	3.1	3.1

Expected margin: about even · Expected total: 6.2. Fair odds are the betting odds that match our forecast.

Kalshi market (latest price, updated 8:01 AM CT): Kalshi chance is the middle of each team's bid and ask, scaled so both teams add to 100% (the market's fee margin removed). It's a market price, not the true chance of winning.

Kalshi market price today

TOR price in cents (NYI is roughly 100 minus it), 11:00 PM CT to 6:09 AM CT

chart runs 43¢ to 65¢latest 54¢

— Kalshi market price for TOR - - Our forecast: TOR 51% to win. The price is what the market charges, not the chance of winning.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 7+ games

NYI·TOR

−0.06

rating (0 = average)

−0.14

2.9

goals / game

3.5

2.4

goals allowed / game

3.5

3−4

season record

3−5

3−1

home record

2−3

0−3

away record

1−2

streak

3−7

last 10

3−7

25.6

shots / game

27.9

53.7

faceoff %

52.7

23.3

hits / game

19.2

14.1

blocked shots / game

15.0

4.1

takeaways / game

4.5

15.7

giveaways / game

17.0

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 3−7

Sep 30at TORTOR 2 − 1

Apr 9at NYINYI 5 − 3

Mar 17at TORNYI 3 − 1

Jan 3at NYINYI 4 − 3 OT

Jan 2, 2025at NYITOR 2 − 1

Dec 31, 2024at TORTOR 3 − 1

Dec 21, 2024at TORNYI 6 − 3

Feb 5, 2024at TORNYI 3 − 2

Jan 11, 2024at NYINYI 4 − 3 OT

Dec 11, 2023at NYINYI 4 − 3 OT

Rating Trend

NYI · TOR · 18 days

NYI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1

Oct 15at OTT1 − 2L

Oct 13vs VAN3 − 2W

Oct 10vs TB3 − 5L

Oct 8vs CHI4 − 1W

Oct 6at NYR2 − 5L

Oct 3vs NJ6 − 0W

Sep 30at TOR1 − 2L

Apr 14vs CAR1 − 2L

Apr 12vs MTL1 − 4L

Apr 11vs OTT0 − 3L

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2

Oct 15vs BUF4 − 5L

Oct 13at UTAH4 − 5L

Oct 10at COL6 − 3W

Oct 8at VGK3 − 4L

Oct 6vs NSH5 − 4W

Oct 3vs OTT2 − 3L

Sep 30vs NYI2 − 1W

Sep 29vs MTL2 − 3L

Apr 15at OTT1 − 3L

Apr 13vs DAL5 − 6L