Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights prediction, 2026-10-17 (NHL)

← NHL / Oct 17 / PIT at VGK

Away · 3−5 Pittsburgh Penguins #17 in NHL · 41% to win

Home · 7−2 Vegas Golden Knights #4 in NHL · 59% to win

SAT 9:00P CT · Oct 17 NHL T-Mobile Arena

The Forecast

Kalshi latest price at 8:03 AM CT, next to our model

Pittsburgh Penguins 41%

Vegas Golden Knights 59%

Chance to win, from our model

← PIT even VGK → Kalshi market
PIT 32% · VGK 68% Our forecast
PIT 41% · VGK 59%

	PIT	VGK
Our chance	41%	59%
Our fair odds	+145	−145
Kalshi chance market	32%	68%
Kalshi odds market	+208	−208
Edge (ours − Kalshi)	+8.3 pts	−8.3 pts
Kalshi bid / ask	32¢ / 33¢	67¢ / 68¢
Expected goals	3.1	3.6

Expected margin: VGK by 0.5 · Expected total: 6.7. Fair odds are the betting odds that match our forecast.

Kalshi market (latest price, updated 8:03 AM CT): Kalshi chance is the middle of each team's bid and ask, scaled so both teams add to 100% (the market's fee margin removed). It's a market price, not the true chance of winning.

Kalshi market price today

VGK price in cents (PIT is roughly 100 minus it), 11:00 PM CT to 7:20 AM CT

chart runs 51¢ to 76¢latest 68¢

— Kalshi market price for VGK - - Our forecast: VGK 59% to win. The price is what the market charges, not the chance of winning.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 8+ games

PIT·VGK

−0.01

rating (0 = average)

+0.25

3.4

goals / game

4.0

3.4

goals allowed / game

2.4

3−5

season record

7−2

2−1

home record

4−1

1−4

away record

3−1

streak

4−6

last 10

7−3

28.6

shots / game

31.0

44.6

faceoff %

52.0

12.1

hits / game

19.0

14.2

blocked shots / game

13.3

4.1

takeaways / game

3.9

17.0

giveaways / game

16.9

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · VGK 4−6

Mar 12at VGKVGK 6 − 2

Mar 1at PITPIT 5 − 0

Mar 11, 2025at PITPIT 3 − 2 OT

Mar 7, 2025at VGKVGK 4 − 0

Jan 20, 2024at VGKVGK 3 − 2

Nov 19, 2023at PITPIT 3 − 0

Jan 5, 2023at VGKVGK 5 − 2

Dec 1, 2022at PITPIT 4 − 3

Mar 11, 2022at PITPIT 5 − 2

Jan 17, 2022at VGKPIT 5 − 3

Rating Trend

PIT · VGK · 18 days

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2

Oct 16at COL2 − 5L

Oct 13at CHI3 − 5L

Oct 10vs DAL2 − 1W

Oct 9at CBJ2 − 3L

Oct 7at WSH3 − 5L

Oct 5vs WPG2 − 3L

Oct 3vs MTL6 − 5W

Sep 30at PHI7 − 0W

Apr 29at PHI0 − 1L

Apr 27vs PHI3 − 2W

VGK · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2

Oct 15vs CGY6 − 2W

Oct 13at NSH5 − 2W

Oct 12at MIN2 − 4L

Oct 10vs LA2 − 1W

Oct 8vs TOR4 − 3W

Oct 6at SEA6 − 2W

Oct 4at VAN3 − 2W

Oct 2vs ANA3 − 4L

Sep 29vs CHI5 − 2W

Jun 14vs CAR0 − 3L