Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, 2026-10-17 (NHL)

← NHL / Oct 17 / VAN at TB

Away · 2−7 Vancouver Canucks #32 in NHL · 26% to win

Home · 5−2 Tampa Bay Lightning #3 in NHL · 74% to win

SAT 3:00P CT · Oct 17 NHL Benchmark International Arena

The Forecast

Kalshi latest price at 8:03 AM CT, next to our model

Vancouver Canucks 26%

Tampa Bay Lightning 74%

Chance to win, from our model

← VAN even TB → Kalshi market
VAN 22% · TB 78% Our forecast
VAN 26% · TB 74%

	VAN	TB
Our chance	26%	74%
Our fair odds	+289	−289
Kalshi chance market	22%	78%
Kalshi odds market	+344	−344
Edge (ours − Kalshi)	+3.2 pts	−3.2 pts
Kalshi bid / ask	22¢ / 23¢	77¢ / 78¢
Expected goals	2.5	4.3

Expected margin: TB by 1.8 · Expected total: 6.8. Fair odds are the betting odds that match our forecast.

Kalshi market (latest price, updated 8:03 AM CT): Kalshi chance is the middle of each team's bid and ask, scaled so both teams add to 100% (the market's fee margin removed). It's a market price, not the true chance of winning.

Kalshi market price today

TB price in cents (VAN is roughly 100 minus it), 11:00 PM CT to 7:40 AM CT

chart runs 66¢ to 86¢latest 78¢

— Kalshi market price for TB - - Our forecast: TB 74% to win. The price is what the market charges, not the chance of winning.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 7+ games

VAN·TB

−0.71

rating (0 = average)

+0.26

3.1

goals / game

3.0

4.6

goals allowed / game

2.7

2−7

season record

5−2

1−2

home record

4−0

1−5

away record

1−2

streak

2−8

last 10

6−4

21.8

shots / game

30.3

47.4

faceoff %

45.7

24.9

hits / game

22.6

15.8

blocked shots / game

13.4

4.4

takeaways / game

4.1

16.4

giveaways / game

16.0

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 8−2

Mar 19at VANTB 6 − 2

Nov 16, 2025at TBVAN 6 − 2

Dec 8, 2024at VANTB 4 − 2

Oct 15, 2024at TBTB 4 − 1

Dec 12, 2023at VANVAN 4 − 1

Oct 19, 2023at TBTB 4 − 3

Jan 18, 2023at VANTB 5 − 2

Jan 12, 2023at TBTB 5 − 4

Mar 13, 2022at VANTB 2 − 1

Jan 13, 2022at TBTB 4 − 2

Rating Trend

VAN · TB · 18 days

VAN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6

Oct 15at FLA2 − 3L

Oct 13at NYI2 − 3L

Oct 11at NYR2 − 6L

Oct 10at NJ1 − 4L

Oct 8at CAR2 − 7L

Oct 4vs VGK2 − 3L

Oct 3vs CGY4 − 1W

Oct 1vs EDM7 − 9L

Sep 29at EDM6 − 5W

Apr 16at EDM1 − 6L

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1

Oct 15vs SEA4 − 3W

Oct 13at NYR1 − 4L

Oct 10at NYI5 − 3W

Oct 8vs MIN3 − 2W

Oct 5vs PHI4 − 1W

Oct 3vs WSH3 − 1W

Oct 1at NYR1 − 5L

May 3vs MTL1 − 2L

May 1at MTL1 − 0W

Apr 29vs MTL2 − 3L