Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NHL / Oct 16 / TB at COL
Away · 5−2 Tampa Bay Lightning #3 in NHL  ·  42% to win
at
Home · 4−3 Colorado Avalanche #2 in NHL  ·  58% to win
FRI 8:00P CT · Oct 16 NHL Ball Arena

The Forecast

Updated Oct 16
Tampa Bay Lightning 42%
Colorado Avalanche 58%

Chance to win, from our model

TBCOL
Chance to win42%58%
Expected goals2.93.3
Fair odds+140−140

Expected margin: about even · Expected total: 6.3. Fair odds are the betting odds that match our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
TB·COL
+0.26
rating (0 = average)
+0.48
3.0
goals / game
4.4
2.7
goals allowed / game
3.1
5−2
season record
4−3
4−0
home record
2−2
1−2
away record
2−1
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
30.3
shots / game
30.6
45.7
faceoff %
48.0
22.6
hits / game
17.7
13.4
blocked shots / game
14.6
4.1
takeaways / game
4.4
16.0
giveaways / game
17.7

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 3−7
Jan 6at TBTB 4 − 2
Nov 4, 2025at COLCOL 3 − 2
Nov 25, 2024at TBTB 8 − 2
Oct 30, 2024at COLTB 5 − 2
Feb 15, 2024at TBTB 6 − 3
Nov 27, 2023at COLCOL 4 − 1
Feb 14, 2023at COLTB 4 − 3 SO
Feb 9, 2023at TBTB 5 − 0
Jun 26, 2022at TBCOL 2 − 1post
Jun 24, 2022at COLTB 3 − 2post

Rating Trend

TB · COL · 17 days

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 15vs SEA4 − 3W
Oct 13at NYR1 − 4L
Oct 10at NYI5 − 3W
Oct 8vs MIN3 − 2W
Oct 5vs PHI4 − 1W
Oct 3vs WSH3 − 1W
Oct 1at NYR1 − 5L
May 3vs MTL1 − 2L
May 1at MTL1 − 0W
Apr 29vs MTL2 − 3L

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 14vs DAL2 − 3L
Oct 13at DAL3 − 2W
Oct 10vs TOR3 − 6L
Oct 8at CGY7 − 3W
Oct 7at WPG2 − 3L
Oct 3vs STL6 − 1W
Sep 30vs LA8 − 4W
May 26at VGK1 − 2L
May 24at VGK3 − 5L
May 22vs VGK1 − 3L