Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NHL / Oct 17 / TOR at EDM
Away · 3−5 Toronto Maple Leafs #26 in NHL  ·  41% to win
at
Home · 5−2 Edmonton Oilers #12 in NHL  ·  59% to win
SAT 6:00P CT · Oct 17 NHL Rogers Place

The Forecast

Updated Oct 17
Toronto Maple Leafs 41%
Edmonton Oilers 59%

Chance to win, from our model

TOREDM
Our chance41%59%
Our fair odds+144−144
Expected goals3.43.9

Expected margin: EDM by 0.5 · Expected total: 7.3. Fair odds are the betting odds that match our forecast.

Kalshi market: No Kalshi market yet.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
TOR·EDM
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
3.5
goals / game
4.4
3.5
goals allowed / game
3.1
3−5
season record
5−2
2−3
home record
1−2
1−2
away record
4−0
L2
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
6−4
27.9
shots / game
24.9
52.7
faceoff %
53.2
19.2
hits / game
27.1
15.0
blocked shots / game
14.0
4.5
takeaways / game
3.4
17.0
giveaways / game
15.6

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · EDM 3−7
Feb 3at EDMTOR 5 − 2
Dec 13, 2025at TOREDM 6 − 3
Feb 1, 2025at EDMTOR 4 − 3
Nov 16, 2024at TORTOR 4 − 3 OT
Mar 23, 2024at TORTOR 6 − 3
Jan 16, 2024at EDMEDM 4 − 2
Mar 11, 2023at TORTOR 7 − 4
Mar 1, 2023at EDMEDM 5 − 2
Jan 5, 2022at TORTOR 4 − 2
Dec 14, 2021at EDMTOR 5 − 1

Rating Trend

TOR · EDM · 18 days

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Oct 15vs BUF4 − 5L
Oct 13at UTAH4 − 5L
Oct 10at COL6 − 3W
Oct 8at VGK3 − 4L
Oct 6vs NSH5 − 4W
Oct 3vs OTT2 − 3L
Sep 30vs NYI2 − 1W
Sep 29vs MTL2 − 3L
Apr 15at OTT1 − 3L
Apr 13vs DAL5 − 6L

EDM · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 15vs UTAH2 − 4L
Oct 13at LA4 − 1W
Oct 10at SJ3 − 1W
Oct 7at ANA5 − 2W
Oct 3vs SEA3 − 1W
Oct 1at VAN9 − 7W
Sep 29vs VAN5 − 6L
Apr 30at ANA2 − 5L
Apr 28vs ANA4 − 1W
Apr 26at ANA3 − 4L