Ratings and forecasts snapshot, 2026-10-12

Kalshi price · as of 9:13 AM CT bayesRatings home-win probability, 0 → 100% · times CT

StartMatchupWin probability SpreadTotalMoneyline

Posterior mean team strength, zero-centered on the logit scale · faint band = 90% interval +0.69 ≈ 2 : 1 vs an average team, neutral field

Rk	Team	Rating	Δ	90% interval	SD	Record
1	SFSan Francisco 49ers	+1.83	—	−0.04 … +5.25	2.03	5−0
2	MINMinnesota Vikings	+1.71	—	−0.06 … +4.81	1.74	5−0
3	KCKansas City Chiefs	+1.52	—	−0.15 … +4.59	1.75	4−0
4	JAXJacksonville Jaguars	+0.84	—	−0.31 … +2.52	0.89	4−1
5	DENDenver Broncos	+0.53	—	−0.58 … +2.08	0.85	3−2
6	BALBaltimore Ravens	+0.51	—	−0.61 … +1.96	0.79	4−1
7	NYGNew York Giants	+0.42	—	−0.69 … +1.76	0.76	3−1−1
8	NENew England Patriots	+0.42	—	−0.62 … +1.80	0.75	3−2
9	CHIChicago Bears	+0.36	—	−0.71 … +1.67	0.73	3−2
10	GBGreen Bay Packers	+0.33	—	−0.73 … +1.62	0.73	3−2
11	BUFBuffalo Bills	+0.31	—	−0.82 … +1.63	0.77	3−1
12	CLECleveland Browns	+0.29	—	−0.78 … +1.53	0.71	3−2
13	PITPittsburgh Steelers	+0.27	—	−0.78 … +1.48	0.69	3−2
14	LARLos Angeles Rams	+0.26	—	−0.87 … +1.60	0.76	2−2
15	DETDetroit Lions	+0.15	—	−0.90 … +1.29	0.68	3−2
16	SEASeattle Seahawks	+0.15	—	−0.96 … +1.37	0.74	3−2
17	LVLas Vegas Raiders	+0.14	—	−0.98 … +1.34	0.71	3−2
18	CINCincinnati Bengals	+0.12	—	−0.95 … +1.25	0.68	3−2
19	CARCarolina Panthers	+0.09	—	−1.10 … +1.32	0.74	2−2
20	ATLAtlanta Falcons	−0.10	—	−1.29 … +1.00	0.69	2−3
21	INDIndianapolis Colts	−0.17	—	−1.44 … +0.95	0.72	2−3
22	NYJNew York Jets	−0.22	—	−1.44 … +0.81	0.70	2−3
23	PHIPhiladelphia Eagles	−0.29	—	−1.60 … +0.82	0.75	2−3
24	DALDallas Cowboys	−0.37	—	−1.80 … +0.70	0.77	2−3
25	NONew Orleans Saints	−0.50	—	−1.94 … +0.61	0.79	1−4
26	TBTampa Bay Buccaneers	−0.57	—	−2.12 … +0.59	0.85	1−4
27	ARIArizona Cardinals	−0.72	—	−2.45 … +0.46	0.94	1−4
28	WSHWashington Commanders	−0.74	—	−2.38 … +0.40	0.86	1−3−1
29	HOUHouston Texans	−1.03	—	−3.10 … +0.30	1.11	1−4
30	MIAMiami Dolphins	−1.28	—	−4.06 … +0.31	1.86	0−5
31	LACLos Angeles Chargers	−1.99	—	−5.68 … +0.04	2.10	0−5
32	TENTennessee Titans	−2.28	—	−6.63 … −0.01	2.42	0−5

Kalshi price · as of 9:13 AM CT bayesRatings home-win probability, 0 → 100% · times CT

StartMatchupWin probability SpreadTotalMoneyline

MON 4:00P
MLB

LADLos Angeles Dodgers46.1%

MILMilwaukee Brewers53.9%

CLECleveland Guardians43.2%

TBTampa Bay Rays56.8%

TB −0.4

8.2

TB −131CLE +131

Posterior mean team strength, zero-centered on the logit scale · faint band = 90% interval +0.69 ≈ 2 : 1 vs an average team, neutral field

Rk	Team	Rating	Δ	90% interval	SD	Record
1	MILMilwaukee Brewers	+0.43	—	+0.17 … +0.70	0.16	107−60
2	LADLos Angeles Dodgers	+0.32	—	+0.08 … +0.57	0.15	103−64
3	TBTampa Bay Rays	+0.31	—	+0.07 … +0.57	0.15	101−64
4	ATLAtlanta Braves	+0.19	—	−0.01 … +0.42	0.13	97−72
5	NYYNew York Yankees	+0.18	—	−0.02 … +0.41	0.13	95−71
6	SDSan Diego Padres	+0.15	—	−0.04 … +0.36	0.12	94−74
7	CHCChicago Cubs	+0.11	—	−0.07 … +0.32	0.12	89−75
8	PHIPhiladelphia Phillies	+0.10	—	−0.08 … +0.31	0.12	89−76
9	BOSBoston Red Sox	+0.08	—	−0.11 … +0.28	0.12	87−77
10	ARIArizona Diamondbacks	+0.07	—	−0.12 … +0.27	0.12	86−76
11	CLECleveland Guardians	+0.05	—	−0.14 … +0.24	0.12	88−79
12	CHWChicago White Sox	+0.04	—	−0.15 … +0.23	0.11	88−81
13	PITPittsburgh Pirates	+0.03	—	−0.16 … +0.22	0.12	82−80
14	MIAMiami Marlins	−0.00	—	−0.20 … +0.19	0.12	80−82
15	BALBaltimore Orioles	−0.02	—	−0.21 … +0.18	0.12	79−82
16	TORToronto Blue Jays	−0.02	—	−0.21 … +0.17	0.12	79−83
17	TEXTexas Rangers	−0.04	—	−0.23 … +0.16	0.12	80−82
18	STLSt. Louis Cardinals	−0.04	—	−0.24 … +0.16	0.12	77−85
19	HOUHouston Astros	−0.04	—	−0.23 … +0.14	0.12	81−83
20	WSHWashington Nationals	−0.05	—	−0.24 … +0.14	0.12	77−85
21	MINMinnesota Twins	−0.06	—	−0.26 … +0.12	0.12	77−85
22	CINCincinnati Reds	−0.06	—	−0.27 … +0.13	0.12	75−87
23	DETDetroit Tigers	−0.08	—	−0.28 … +0.11	0.12	76−86
24	NYMNew York Mets	−0.08	—	−0.29 … +0.10	0.12	74−88
25	SEASeattle Mariners	−0.09	—	−0.30 … +0.10	0.12	76−86
26	KCKansas City Royals	−0.19	—	−0.41 … +0.02	0.13	69−93
27	SFSan Francisco Giants	−0.24	—	−0.49 … −0.02	0.14	65−97
28	ATHAthletics	−0.31	—	−0.57 … −0.07	0.15	64−98
29	LAALos Angeles Angels	−0.34	—	−0.61 … −0.10	0.15	62−100
30	COLColorado Rockies	−0.40	—	−0.68 … −0.14	0.16	58−104

Kalshi price · as of 9:13 AM CT bayesRatings home-win probability, 0 → 100% · times CT

StartMatchupWin probability SpreadTotalMoneyline

MON 12:00P
NHL

FLAFlorida Panthers50.7%

BUFBuffalo Sabres49.3%

OTTOttawa Senators51.3%

NJNew Jersey Devils48.7%

VGKVegas Golden Knights43.7%

MINMinnesota Wild56.3%

MIN −0.3

5.5

MIN −129VGK +129

Posterior mean team strength, zero-centered on the logit scale · faint band = 90% interval +0.69 ≈ 2 : 1 vs an average team, neutral field

Rk	Team	Rating	Δ	90% interval	SD	Record
1	VGKVegas Golden Knights	+0.42	—	−0.25 … +1.58	0.60	5−1
2	ANAAnaheim Ducks	+0.42	—	−0.30 … +1.66	0.64	4−1
3	EDMEdmonton Oilers	+0.41	—	−0.29 … +1.58	0.61	4−1
4	TBTampa Bay Lightning	+0.36	—	−0.35 … +1.52	0.62	4−1
5	OTTOttawa Senators	+0.34	—	−0.34 … +1.43	0.57	4−1
6	NYRNew York Rangers	+0.32	—	−0.30 … +1.27	0.50	5−2
7	UTAHUtah Mammoth	+0.26	—	−0.39 … +1.16	0.49	4−2
8	BOSBoston Bruins	+0.24	—	−0.43 … +1.19	0.53	4−2
9	SEASeattle Kraken	+0.21	—	−0.44 … +1.06	0.47	4−2
10	CARCarolina Hurricanes	+0.20	—	−0.46 … +1.06	0.47	5−2
11	WSHWashington Capitals	+0.18	—	−0.49 … +1.02	0.48	3−2
12	MINMinnesota Wild	+0.17	—	−0.51 … +1.05	0.49	3−2
13	WPGWinnipeg Jets	+0.15	—	−0.54 … +1.01	0.48	3−2
14	SJSan Jose Sharks	+0.10	—	−0.56 … +0.88	0.46	3−2
15	COLColorado Avalanche	+0.06	—	−0.65 … +0.81	0.47	3−2
16	TORToronto Maple Leafs	+0.04	—	−0.63 … +0.77	0.43	3−3
17	CBJColumbus Blue Jackets	+0.01	—	−0.77 … +0.78	0.47	2−2
18	PITPittsburgh Penguins	−0.01	—	−0.75 … +0.71	0.45	3−3
19	FLAFlorida Panthers	−0.04	—	−0.83 … +0.69	0.47	2−3
20	NSHNashville Predators	−0.04	—	−0.81 … +0.64	0.44	2−3
21	NJNew Jersey Devils	−0.05	—	−0.88 … +0.70	0.49	2−2
22	DALDallas Stars	−0.07	—	−0.89 … +0.60	0.46	2−3
23	STLSt. Louis Blues	−0.08	—	−0.90 … +0.62	0.47	2−3
24	NYINew York Islanders	−0.08	—	−0.89 … +0.59	0.47	2−3
25	MTLMontreal Canadiens	−0.10	—	−0.93 … +0.57	0.46	2−3
26	BUFBuffalo Sabres	−0.10	—	−0.94 … +0.59	0.47	2−3
27	VANVancouver Canucks	−0.21	—	−1.09 … +0.43	0.47	2−5
28	DETDetroit Red Wings	−0.27	—	−1.36 … +0.44	0.56	1−4
29	CHIChicago Blackhawks	−0.38	—	−1.57 … +0.31	0.61	1−5
30	LALos Angeles Kings	−0.57	—	−2.39 … +0.31	0.98	0−4
31	CGYCalgary Flames	−0.82	—	−3.04 … +0.21	1.16	0−5
32	PHIPhiladelphia Flyers	−1.08	—	−3.71 … +0.10	1.41	0−7

NFL — 2026-10-12

MLB — 2026-10-12

NHL — 2026-10-12