bayesRatings

Yankees at Giants

MLB · Wednesday, Mar 25 · 7:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final NYY 7 – SF 0
← MLB / Mar 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY0500200007101
SF000000000031
Team box
NYY·SF
10
hits
3
0
home runs
0
3
walks
2
12
strikeouts
6
121
pitches thrown
137
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Giancarlo StantonNYY2-4101
Ryan McMahonNYY1-3102
Trent GrishamNYY1-5002
Jose CaballeroNYY1-4101
Austin WellsNYY2-3100
Cody BellingerNYY1-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Max Fried (W)NYY6.12014
Logan Webb (L)SF5.09617

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +7
NYY +7
123456789
largest lead: SF 0 · NYY 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 55%, SF 45% · Updated Mar 25

Expected margin
NYY by 0.6
Expected score
NYY 4.9 – 4.3 SF
Expected total
9.2
YankeesThe matchupGiants
−120Our fair odds+120
4.9Expected runs4.3
+0.26Power rating−0.00
0−0Season record0−0
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · SF chance
Our model fair54.5%45.5%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−12055%−12154.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+12045%+10149.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.6
NYYNew York Yankees−0.6our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.6 expected
New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 13%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 14%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%
← NYY wins bySF wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more41%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more31%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYMax Fried SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 14 Kstarted
SFLogan Webb SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 1.96 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·SF
Oct 8, 2025 vs TOR
last game
Sep 28, 2025 vs COL
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
0
games in last 7 days
0
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
NYY·SF
+0.26
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
6−4
last 10
5−5

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · SF 3−6
Apr 13, 2025at NYYSF 5 − 4
Apr 12, 2025at NYYNYY 8 − 4
Apr 11, 2025at NYYSF 9 − 1
Jun 2, 2024at SFNYY 7 − 5
Jun 1, 2024at SFNYY 7 − 3
May 31, 2024at SFNYY 6 − 2
Apr 2, 2023at NYYNYY 6 − 0
Apr 1, 2023at NYYSF 7 − 5
Mar 30, 2023at NYYNYY 5 − 0

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 8, 2025vs TOR2 − 5L
Oct 7, 2025vs TOR9 − 6W
Oct 5, 2025at TOR7 − 13L
Oct 4, 2025at TOR1 − 10L
Oct 2, 2025vs BOS4 − 0W
Oct 1, 2025vs BOS4 − 3W
Sep 30, 2025vs BOS1 − 3L
Sep 28, 2025vs BAL3 − 2W
Sep 27, 2025vs BAL6 − 1W
Sep 26, 2025vs BAL8 − 4W

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W4
Sep 28, 2025vs COL4 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025vs COL4 − 3W
Sep 26, 2025vs COL6 − 3W
Sep 24, 2025vs STL4 − 3W
Sep 23, 2025vs STL8 − 9L
Sep 22, 2025vs STL5 − 6L
Sep 21, 2025at LAD3 − 1W
Sep 20, 2025at LAD5 − 7L
Sep 19, 2025at LAD3 − 6L
Sep 18, 2025at LAD1 − 2L