bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Dodgers

MLB · Thursday, Mar 26 · 7:30 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final ARI 2 – LAD 8
← MLB / Mar 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI000200000260
LAD000040408100
Team box
ARI·LAD
6
hits
10
1
home runs
2
0
walks
5
8
strikeouts
4
153
pitches thrown
127
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Will SmithLAD2-4113
Andy PagesLAD2-4113
Geraldo PerdomoARI2-4112
Mookie BettsLAD1-4101
Kyle TuckerLAD1-4101
Nolan ArenadoARI1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zac Gallen (L)ARI4.05422
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (W)LAD6.05206

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +6
ARI +6
123456789
largest lead: LAD 6 · ARI 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 43%, LAD 57% · Updated Mar 26

Expected margin
LAD by 0.8
Expected score
LAD 5.2 – 4.4 ARI
Expected total
9.7
DiamondbacksThe matchupDodgers
+134Our fair odds−134
4.4Expected runs5.2
+0.03Power rating+0.24
0−0Season record0−0
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · LAD chance
Our model fair42.8%57.2%
Kalshi30.4%73.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:30 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+13443%+22930.4%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−13457%−27673.4%———
SpreadLAD by 0.8
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.8our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.8 expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 12%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more43%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more33%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIZac Gallen SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.67 ERA, 18 Kstarted
LADYoshinobu Yamamoto SP · last 3 starts: 24.0 IP, 1.12 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·LAD
Sep 28, 2025 at SD
last game
Nov 1, 2025 at TOR
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
0
games in last 7 days
0
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
ARI·LAD
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.24
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
3−7
last 10
7−3

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 6−4
Sep 25, 2025at ARILAD 8 − 0
Sep 24, 2025at ARILAD 5 − 4
Sep 23, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 4
Aug 31, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 4
Aug 30, 2025at LADARI 6 − 1
Aug 29, 2025at LADARI 3 − 0
May 21, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 1
May 20, 2025at LADLAD 4 − 3
May 19, 2025at LADARI 9 − 5
May 11, 2025at ARILAD 8 − 1

ARI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Sep 28, 2025at SD4 − 12L
Sep 27, 2025at SD1 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025at SD4 − 7L
Sep 25, 2025vs LAD0 − 8L
Sep 24, 2025vs LAD4 − 5L
Sep 23, 2025vs LAD5 − 4W
Sep 21, 2025vs PHI9 − 2W
Sep 20, 2025vs PHI4 − 3W
Sep 19, 2025vs PHI2 − 8L
Sep 17, 2025vs SF1 − 5L

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Nov 1, 2025at TOR5 − 4W
Oct 31, 2025at TOR3 − 1W
Oct 29, 2025vs TOR1 − 6L
Oct 28, 2025vs TOR2 − 6L
Oct 27, 2025vs TOR6 − 5W
Oct 25, 2025at TOR5 − 1W
Oct 24, 2025at TOR4 − 11L
Oct 17, 2025vs MIL5 − 1W
Oct 16, 2025vs MIL3 − 1W
Oct 14, 2025at MIL5 − 1W