bayesRatings

Red Sox at Reds

MLB · Thursday, Mar 26 · 3:10 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final BOS 3 – CIN 0
← MLB / Mar 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS0000001023121
CIN000000000040
Team box
BOS·CIN
12
hits
4
0
home runs
0
3
walks
3
7
strikeouts
12
126
pitches thrown
131
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jarren DuranBOS2-5001
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2-4001
Roman AnthonyBOS3-4100
Sal StewartCIN3-4000
Trevor StoryBOS1-5001
Marcelo MayerBOS2-2200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Garrett Crochet (W)BOS6.03028
Aroldis Chapman (S)BOS1.00000
Andrew AbbottCIN6.07014
Pierce Johnson (L)CIN0.12100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
BOS +3
123456789
largest lead: CIN 0 · BOS 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 50%, CIN 50% · Updated Mar 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.5 – 4.1 CIN
Expected total
8.6
Red SoxThe matchupReds
−101Our fair odds+101
4.5Expected runs4.1
+0.13Power rating+0.03
0−0Season record0−0
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · CIN chance
Our model fair50.3%49.7%
Kalshi61.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−10150%−16161.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+10150%+13442.7%———
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.4our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 18%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byCIN wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more40%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more29%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSGarrett Crochet SP · last 3 starts: 21.2 IP, 1.66 ERA, 26 Kstarted
CINAndrew Abbott SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·CIN
Oct 2, 2025 at NYY
last game
Oct 1, 2025 at LAD
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
0
games in last 7 days
0
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
BOS·CIN
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
5−5
last 10
5−5

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 5−5
Jul 2, 2025at BOSCIN 8 − 4
Jul 1, 2025at BOSBOS 5 − 3
Jun 30, 2025at BOSBOS 13 − 6
Jun 23, 2024at CINBOS 7 − 4
Jun 22, 2024at CINBOS 4 − 3
Jun 21, 2024at CINCIN 5 − 2
Jun 1, 2023at BOSBOS 8 − 2
May 31, 2023at BOSCIN 5 − 4
May 30, 2023at BOSCIN 9 − 8
Sep 21, 2022at CINCIN 5 − 1

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Oct 2, 2025at NYY0 − 4L
Oct 1, 2025at NYY3 − 4L
Sep 30, 2025at NYY3 − 1W
Sep 28, 2025vs DET4 − 3W
Sep 27, 2025vs DET1 − 2L
Sep 26, 2025vs DET4 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025at TOR1 − 6L
Sep 24, 2025at TOR7 − 1W
Sep 23, 2025at TOR4 − 1W
Sep 21, 2025at TB3 − 7L

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Oct 1, 2025at LAD4 − 8L
Sep 30, 2025at LAD5 − 10L
Sep 28, 2025at MIL2 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at MIL7 − 4W
Sep 26, 2025at MIL3 − 1W
Sep 25, 2025vs PIT2 − 1W
Sep 24, 2025vs PIT3 − 4L
Sep 23, 2025vs PIT2 − 4L
Sep 21, 2025vs CHC1 − 0W
Sep 20, 2025vs CHC6 − 3W