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White Sox at Brewers

MLB · Thursday, Mar 26 · 1:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final CHW 2 – MIL 14
← MLB / Mar 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW100000001241
MIL0402233014120
Team box
CHW·MIL
4
hits
12
2
home runs
2
5
walks
10
20
strikeouts
3
186
pitches thrown
155
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BauersMIL2-5213
Sal FrelickMIL1-3212
William ContrerasMIL1-3103
Joey OrtizMIL2-3202
Munetaka MurakamiCHW1-2111
Chase MeidrothCHW1-2111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane Smith (L)CHW1.23322
Jacob Misiorowski (W)MIL5.021311

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +13
CHW +13
123456789
largest lead: MIL 13 · CHW 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 36%, MIL 64% · Updated Mar 26

Expected margin
MIL by 1.7
Expected score
MIL 4.9 – 3.2 CHW
Expected total
8.1
White SoxThe matchupBrewers
+175Our fair odds−175
3.2Expected runs4.9
−0.26Power rating+0.22
0−0Season record0−0
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · MIL chance
Our model fair36.4%63.6%
Kalshi38.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+17536%+15938.6%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−17564%−19966.6%———
SpreadMIL by 1.7
CHWChicago White Sox+1.7our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.7 expected
Chicago White Sox by 15 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 8%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 15%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more51%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more39%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWShane Smith SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 4.11 ERA, 23 Kstarted
MILJacob Misiorowski SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·MIL
Sep 28, 2025 at WSH
last game
Oct 17, 2025 at LAD
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
0
games in last 7 days
0
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
CHW·MIL
−0.26
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
3−7
last 10
4−6

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 8−2
May 1, 2025at CHWCHW 8 − 0
Apr 30, 2025at CHWMIL 6 − 4
Apr 29, 2025at CHWMIL 7 − 2
Jun 2, 2024at MILMIL 6 − 3
Jun 1, 2024at MILMIL 4 − 3
May 31, 2024at MILMIL 12 − 5
Aug 13, 2023at CHWMIL 7 − 3
Aug 12, 2023at CHWMIL 3 − 2
Aug 11, 2023at CHWMIL 7 − 6
Jul 25, 2021at MILCHW 3 − 1

CHW · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Sep 28, 2025at WSH8 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025at WSH5 − 6L
Sep 26, 2025at WSH10 − 9W
Sep 25, 2025at NYY3 − 5L
Sep 24, 2025at NYY1 − 8L
Sep 23, 2025at NYY2 − 3L
Sep 21, 2025vs SD2 − 3L
Sep 20, 2025vs SD3 − 7L
Sep 19, 2025vs SD4 − 3W
Sep 17, 2025vs BAL1 − 3L

MIL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Oct 17, 2025at LAD1 − 5L
Oct 16, 2025at LAD1 − 3L
Oct 14, 2025vs LAD1 − 5L
Oct 13, 2025vs LAD1 − 2L
Oct 11, 2025vs CHC3 − 1W
Oct 9, 2025at CHC0 − 6L
Oct 8, 2025at CHC3 − 4L
Oct 6, 2025vs CHC7 − 3W
Oct 4, 2025vs CHC9 − 3W
Sep 28, 2025vs CIN4 − 2W