bayesRatings

Angels at Astros

MLB · Thursday, Mar 26 · 3:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final LAA 3 – HOU 0
← MLB / Mar 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA000000111390
HOU000000000030
Team box
LAA·HOU
9
hits
3
2
home runs
0
6
walks
6
14
strikeouts
9
130
pitches thrown
193
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mike TroutLAA1-2111
Nolan SchanuelLAA1-5111
Joey LoperfidoHOU2-4000
Jo AdellLAA2-3100
Logan O'HoppeLAA2-4000
Oswald PerazaLAA1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jose Soriano (W)LAA6.02047
Jordan Romano (S)LAA1.00011
Hunter BrownHOU4.24049
AJ Blubaugh (L)HOU2.12103

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +3
LAA +3
123456789
largest lead: HOU 0 · LAA 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 41%, HOU 59% · Updated Mar 26

Expected margin
HOU by 1.2
Expected score
HOU 4.8 – 3.6 LAA
Expected total
8.5
AngelsThe matchupAstros
+141Our fair odds−141
3.6Expected runs4.8
−0.21Power rating+0.06
0−0Season record0−0
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · HOU chance
Our model fair41.4%58.6%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+14141%+15239.6%———
HOUHouston Astros−14159%−18364.6%———
SpreadHOU by 1.2
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.2our margin————
HOUHouston Astros−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Astros by 1.2 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Houston Astros by 1 run: 12%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 11%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more46%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more35%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAJose Soriano SP · last 3 starts: 7.2 IP, 16.43 ERA, 8 Kstarted
HOUHunter Brown SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·HOU
Sep 28, 2025 vs HOU
last game
Sep 28, 2025 at LAA
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
0
games in last 7 days
0
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
LAA·HOU
−0.21
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
3−7
last 10
4−6

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 6−4
Sep 28, 2025at LAAHOU 6 − 2
Sep 27, 2025at LAAHOU 6 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at LAALAA 4 − 3
Sep 1, 2025at HOUHOU 8 − 3
Aug 31, 2025at HOULAA 3 − 0
Aug 30, 2025at HOULAA 4 − 1
Aug 29, 2025at HOUHOU 2 − 0
Jun 22, 2025at LAAHOU 8 − 7
Jun 21, 2025at LAALAA 9 − 1
Jun 20, 2025at LAAHOU 3 − 2

LAA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Sep 28, 2025vs HOU2 − 6L
Sep 27, 2025vs HOU1 − 6L
Sep 26, 2025vs HOU4 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025vs KC4 − 9L
Sep 24, 2025vs KC3 − 2W
Sep 23, 2025vs KC4 − 8L
Sep 21, 2025at COL1 − 3L
Sep 20, 2025at COL3 − 0W
Sep 19, 2025at COL6 − 7L
Sep 18, 2025at MIL2 − 5L

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Sep 28, 2025at LAA6 − 2W
Sep 27, 2025at LAA6 − 1W
Sep 26, 2025at LAA3 − 4L
Sep 25, 2025at ATH11 − 5W
Sep 24, 2025at ATH0 − 6L
Sep 23, 2025at ATH1 − 5L
Sep 21, 2025vs SEA3 − 7L
Sep 20, 2025vs SEA4 − 6L
Sep 19, 2025vs SEA0 − 4L
Sep 17, 2025vs TEX5 − 2W