bayesRatings

Twins at Orioles

MLB · Thursday, Mar 26 · 2:05 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final MIN 1 – BAL 2
← MLB / Mar 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN000000010151
BAL00000020251
Team box
MIN·BAL
5
hits
5
0
home runs
0
4
walks
3
9
strikeouts
8
130
pitches thrown
121
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Blaze AlexanderBAL1-3001
Adley RutschmanBAL2-4000
Luke KeaschallMIN1-3001
Tyler O'NeillBAL1-2100
Colton CowserBAL0-2001
Samuel BasalloBAL1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Joe RyanMIN5.11027
Kody Funderburk (L)MIN0.21110
Trevor Rogers (W)BAL7.03045
Ryan Helsley (S)BAL1.01003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +3
MIN +3
123456789
largest lead: BAL 2 · MIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 46%, BAL 54% · Updated Mar 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BAL 4.5 – 4.4 MIN
Expected total
8.9
TwinsThe matchupOrioles
+118Our fair odds−118
4.4Expected runs4.5
−0.12Power rating−0.04
0−0Season record0−0
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · BAL chance
Our model fair45.9%54.1%
Kalshi46.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+11846%+11446.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles−11854%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota Twins+0.1our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 11%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 17%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byBAL wins by →
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more36%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 3 or more26%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINJoe Ryan SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 18 Kstarted
BALTrevor Rogers SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 3.86 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·BAL
Sep 28, 2025 at PHI
last game
Sep 28, 2025 at NYY
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
0
games in last 7 days
0
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
MIN·BAL
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
4−6
last 10
3−7

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 4−6
May 15, 2025at BALMIN 4 − 0
May 14, 2025at BALMIN 8 − 6
May 14, 2025at BALMIN 6 − 3
May 8, 2025at MINMIN 5 − 2
May 7, 2025at MINMIN 5 − 2
May 6, 2025at MINMIN 9 − 1
Sep 29, 2024at MINBAL 6 − 2
Sep 28, 2024at MINBAL 9 − 2
Sep 27, 2024at MINBAL 7 − 2
Apr 17, 2024at BALBAL 4 − 2

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 28, 2025at PHI1 − 2L
Sep 27, 2025at PHI5 − 0W
Sep 26, 2025at PHI1 − 3L
Sep 25, 2025at TEX4 − 0W
Sep 24, 2025at TEX2 − 4L
Sep 23, 2025at TEX4 − 1W
Sep 21, 2025vs CLE6 − 2W
Sep 20, 2025vs CLE0 − 8L
Sep 20, 2025vs CLE0 − 6L
Sep 19, 2025vs CLE2 − 6L

BAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Sep 28, 2025at NYY2 − 3L
Sep 27, 2025at NYY1 − 6L
Sep 26, 2025at NYY4 − 8L
Sep 25, 2025vs TB6 − 5W
Sep 24, 2025vs TB2 − 6L
Sep 23, 2025vs TB6 − 0W
Sep 21, 2025vs NYY1 − 7L
Sep 20, 2025vs NYY1 − 6L
Sep 19, 2025vs NYY4 − 2W
Sep 18, 2025vs NYY0 − 7L