bayesRatings

Pirates at Mets

MLB · Thursday, Mar 26 · 12:15 PM CT · Citi Field · Final PIT 7 – NYM 11
← MLB / Mar 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT2010110027101
NYM5001320011110
Team box
PIT·NYM
10
hits
11
3
home runs
2
0
walks
9
10
strikeouts
10
192
pitches thrown
139
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon LowePIT2-4223
Francisco AlvarezNYM2-4211
Ryan O'HearnPIT2-4211
Luis Robert Jr.NYM2-4102
Brett BatyNYM1-5103
Nick GonzalesPIT2-4102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Paul Skenes (L)PIT0.24521
Freddy Peralta (W)NYM5.06407

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +6
PIT +6
123456789
largest lead: NYM 6 · PIT 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 45%, NYM 55% · Updated Mar 26

Expected margin
NYM by 0.7
Expected score
NYM 4.5 – 3.9 PIT
Expected total
8.4
PiratesThe matchupMets
+122Our fair odds−122
3.9Expected runs4.5
−0.07Power rating+0.05
0−0Season record0−0
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · NYM chance
Our model fair45.0%55.0%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+12245%+10149.7%———
NYMNew York Mets−12255%−12154.7%———
SpreadNYM by 0.7
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.7our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 0.7 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 16%New York Mets by 1 run: 13%New York Mets by 2 runs: 11%New York Mets by 3 runs: 8%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 6 runs: 4%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more42%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more31%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITPaul Skenes SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 1.84 ERA, 21 Kstarted
NYMFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 4.70 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·NYM
Sep 28, 2025 at ATL
last game
Sep 28, 2025 at MIA
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
0
games in last 7 days
0
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
PIT·NYM
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
6−4
last 10
5−5

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 4−6
Jun 29, 2025at PITPIT 12 − 1
Jun 28, 2025at PITPIT 9 − 2
Jun 27, 2025at PITPIT 9 − 1
May 14, 2025at NYMPIT 4 − 0
May 13, 2025at NYMNYM 2 − 1
May 12, 2025at NYMNYM 4 − 3
Jul 8, 2024at PITPIT 8 − 2
Jul 7, 2024at PITNYM 3 − 2
Jul 6, 2024at PITNYM 5 − 2
Jul 5, 2024at PITPIT 14 − 2

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Sep 28, 2025at ATL1 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at ATL3 − 1W
Sep 26, 2025at ATL9 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025at CIN1 − 2L
Sep 24, 2025at CIN4 − 3W
Sep 23, 2025at CIN4 − 2W
Sep 21, 2025vs ATH11 − 0W
Sep 20, 2025vs ATH2 − 0W
Sep 19, 2025vs ATH3 − 4L
Sep 17, 2025vs CHC4 − 8L

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 28, 2025at MIA0 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at MIA5 − 0W
Sep 26, 2025at MIA2 − 6L
Sep 25, 2025at CHC8 − 5W
Sep 24, 2025at CHC3 − 10L
Sep 23, 2025at CHC9 − 7W
Sep 21, 2025vs WSH2 − 3L
Sep 20, 2025vs WSH3 − 5L
Sep 19, 2025vs WSH12 − 6W
Sep 18, 2025vs SD6 − 1W