bayesRatings

Rays at Cardinals

MLB · Thursday, Mar 26 · 3:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final TB 7 – STL 9
← MLB / Mar 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB0000160007172
STL001008009140
Team box
TB·STL
17
hits
14
1
home runs
2
6
walks
1
5
strikeouts
3
145
pitches thrown
168
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alec BurlesonSTL3-4212
Jonathan ArandaTB2-4112
Nathan ChurchSTL3-4102
JJ WetherholtSTL1-4112
Nick FortesTB3-4101
Ben WilliamsonTB3-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Drew RasmussenTB5.04102
Garrett Cleavinger (L)TB0.12200
Matthew LiberatoreSTL5.07122
Riley O'Brien (W)STL1.11002
Ryne Stanek (S)STL1.00031

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +6
TB +6
123456789
largest lead: STL 2 · TB 6lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 49%, STL 51% · Updated Mar 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.4 – 4.0 STL
Expected total
8.4
RaysThe matchupCardinals
+103Our fair odds−103
4.4Expected runs4.0
+0.00Power rating−0.05
0−0Season record0−0
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · STL chance
Our model fair49.3%50.7%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+10349%−13757.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10351%+11446.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.4our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 18%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins bySTL wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more39%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more29%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBDrew Rasmussen SP · last 3 starts: 10.1 IP, 4.35 ERA, 10 Kstarted
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.80 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·STL
Sep 28, 2025 at TOR
last game
Sep 28, 2025 at CHC
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
0
games in last 7 days
0
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
TB·STL
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
3−7
last 10
4−6

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 5−5
Aug 24, 2025at TBTB 7 − 2
Aug 22, 2025at TBTB 10 − 6
Aug 21, 2025at TBSTL 7 − 4
Aug 8, 2024at STLTB 6 − 4
Aug 7, 2024at STLSTL 5 − 2
Aug 6, 2024at STLSTL 4 − 3
Aug 10, 2023at TBSTL 5 − 2
Aug 9, 2023at TBSTL 6 − 4
Aug 8, 2023at TBTB 4 − 2
Jun 9, 2022at TBTB 2 − 1

TB · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Sep 28, 2025at TOR4 − 13L
Sep 27, 2025at TOR1 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025at TOR2 − 4L
Sep 25, 2025at BAL5 − 6L
Sep 24, 2025at BAL6 − 2W
Sep 23, 2025at BAL0 − 6L
Sep 21, 2025vs BOS7 − 3W
Sep 20, 2025vs BOS3 − 6L
Sep 19, 2025vs BOS7 − 11L
Sep 18, 2025vs TOR4 − 0W

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Sep 28, 2025at CHC0 − 2L
Sep 27, 2025at CHC3 − 7L
Sep 26, 2025at CHC1 − 12L
Sep 24, 2025at SF3 − 4L
Sep 23, 2025at SF9 − 8W
Sep 22, 2025at SF6 − 5W
Sep 21, 2025vs MIL5 − 1W
Sep 20, 2025vs MIL2 − 3L
Sep 19, 2025vs MIL7 − 1W
Sep 17, 2025vs CIN2 − 6L