bayesRatings

Rangers at Phillies

MLB · Thursday, Mar 26 · 3:15 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final TEX 3 – PHI 5
← MLB / Mar 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX000000003380
PHI200030005101
Team box
TEX·PHI
8
hits
10
1
home runs
2
1
walks
1
11
strikeouts
10
143
pitches thrown
148
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BurgerTEX3-4112
Alec BohmPHI1-3113
Kyle SchwarberPHI1-4112
Trea TurnerPHI2-4200
Brandon MarshPHI2-4000
Bryson StottPHI2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nathan Eovaldi (L)TEX4.28507
Cristopher Sanchez (W)PHI6.030010
Jhoan Duran (S)PHI0.21001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +5
TEX +5
123456789
largest lead: PHI 5 · TEX 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 44%, PHI 56% · Updated Mar 26

Expected margin
PHI by 0.6
Expected score
PHI 4.3 – 3.8 TEX
Expected total
8.1
RangersThe matchupPhillies
+125Our fair odds−125
3.8Expected runs4.3
+0.04Power rating+0.19
0−0Season record0−0
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · PHI chance
Our model fair44.4%55.6%
Kalshi42.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+12544%+13442.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12556%−16862.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.6
TEXTexas Rangers+0.6our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.6 expected
Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 9%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 15%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 15%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more40%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more29%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXNathan Eovaldi SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 3.79 ERA, 18 Kstarted
PHICristopher Sanchez SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.53 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·PHI
Sep 28, 2025 at CLE
last game
Oct 9, 2025 at LAD
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
0
games in last 7 days
0
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
TEX·PHI
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
2−8
last 10
5−5

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 6−4
Aug 10, 2025at TEXPHI 4 − 2
Aug 9, 2025at TEXPHI 3 − 2
Aug 8, 2025at TEXPHI 9 − 1
May 23, 2024at PHIPHI 5 − 2
May 22, 2024at PHIPHI 11 − 4
May 21, 2024at PHIPHI 5 − 2
Apr 2, 2023at TEXTEX 2 − 1
Apr 1, 2023at TEXTEX 16 − 3
Mar 30, 2023at TEXTEX 11 − 7
Jun 22, 2022at TEXTEX 4 − 2

TEX · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Sep 28, 2025at CLE8 − 9L
Sep 27, 2025at CLE2 − 3L
Sep 26, 2025at CLE7 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025vs MIN0 − 4L
Sep 24, 2025vs MIN4 − 2W
Sep 23, 2025vs MIN1 − 4L
Sep 21, 2025vs MIA2 − 4L
Sep 20, 2025vs MIA3 − 4L
Sep 19, 2025vs MIA4 − 6L
Sep 17, 2025at HOU2 − 5L

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 9, 2025at LAD1 − 2L
Oct 8, 2025at LAD8 − 2W
Oct 6, 2025vs LAD3 − 4L
Oct 4, 2025vs LAD3 − 5L
Sep 28, 2025vs MIN2 − 1W
Sep 27, 2025vs MIN0 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025vs MIN3 − 1W
Sep 25, 2025vs MIA1 − 0W
Sep 24, 2025vs MIA11 − 1W
Sep 23, 2025vs MIA5 − 6L