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Nationals at Cubs

MLB · Thursday, Mar 26 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final WSH 10 – CHC 4
← MLB / Mar 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH01060100210112
CHC002100100481
Team box
WSH·CHC
11
hits
8
3
home runs
0
2
walks
6
12
strikeouts
9
182
pitches thrown
138
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Joey WiemerWSH3-3211
Brady HouseWSH2-5212
Jacob YoungWSH1-4112
Michael BuschCHC3-4201
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC2-5002
CJ AbramsWSH1-4002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cade CavalliWSH3.23235
Brad Lord (W)WSH2.14101
Matthew Boyd (L)CHC3.26617

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +6
WSH +6
123456789
largest lead: CHC 1 · WSH 6lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 38%, CHC 62% · Updated Mar 26

Expected margin
CHC by 1.8
Expected score
CHC 5.5 – 3.6 WSH
Expected total
9.1
NationalsThe matchupCubs
+163Our fair odds−163
3.6Expected runs5.5
−0.26Power rating+0.14
0−0Season record0−0
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · CHC chance
Our model fair38.1%61.9%
Kalshi36.6%67.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+16338%+17336.6%———
CHCChicago Cubs−16362%−20867.6%———
SpreadCHC by 1.8
WSHWashington Nationals+1.8our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.8 expected
Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 9%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 16 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more52%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more41%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 3.21 ERA, 11 Kstarted
CHCMatthew Boyd SP · last 3 starts: 9.2 IP, 2.79 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·CHC
Sep 28, 2025 vs CHW
last game
Oct 11, 2025 at MIL
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
0
games in last 7 days
0
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
WSH·CHC
−0.26
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
4−6
last 10
6−4

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 6−4
Sep 7, 2025at CHCWSH 6 − 3
Sep 6, 2025at CHCWSH 2 − 1
Sep 5, 2025at CHCCHC 11 − 5
Jun 5, 2025at WSHCHC 7 − 1
Jun 4, 2025at WSHWSH 2 − 0
Jun 3, 2025at WSHCHC 8 − 3
Sep 22, 2024at CHCCHC 5 − 0
Sep 21, 2024at CHCWSH 5 − 1
Sep 20, 2024at CHCCHC 3 − 1
Sep 19, 2024at CHCCHC 7 − 6

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 28, 2025vs CHW0 − 8L
Sep 27, 2025vs CHW6 − 5W
Sep 26, 2025vs CHW9 − 10L
Sep 24, 2025at ATL4 − 3W
Sep 23, 2025at ATL2 − 3L
Sep 22, 2025at ATL5 − 11L
Sep 21, 2025at NYM3 − 2W
Sep 20, 2025at NYM5 − 3W
Sep 19, 2025at NYM6 − 12L
Sep 17, 2025vs ATL4 − 9L

CHC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 11, 2025at MIL1 − 3L
Oct 9, 2025vs MIL6 − 0W
Oct 8, 2025vs MIL4 − 3W
Oct 6, 2025at MIL3 − 7L
Oct 4, 2025at MIL3 − 9L
Oct 2, 2025vs SD3 − 1W
Oct 1, 2025vs SD0 − 3L
Sep 30, 2025vs SD3 − 1W
Sep 28, 2025vs STL2 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025vs STL7 − 3W