bayesRatings

Guardians at Mariners

MLB · Friday, Mar 27 · 8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final CLE 1 – SEA 5
← MLB / Mar 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE100000000140
SEA00030200530
Team box
CLE·SEA
4
hits
3
1
home runs
2
3
walks
7
9
strikeouts
10
137
pitches thrown
141
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cole YoungSEA1-3113
Luke RaleySEA1-4112
Chase DeLauterCLE1-4111
Steven KwanCLE2-4000
Bo NaylorCLE1-3000
Leo RivasSEA1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gavin Williams (L)CLE5.02367
George Kirby (W)SEA6.02126

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +4
CLE +4
123456789
largest lead: SEA 4 · CLE 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 47%, SEA 53% · Updated Mar 27

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.2 – 3.9 CLE
Expected total
8.2
GuardiansThe matchupMariners
+111Our fair odds−111
3.9Expected runs4.2
+0.08Power rating+0.10
6.0Runs / game4.0
4.0Allowed / game6.0
12.0Hits / game6.0
2.00Home runs / game4.00
2.0Walks drawn / game2.0
1−0Season record0−1
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · SEA chance
Our model fair47.4%52.6%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+11147%+14640.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−11153%−17563.6%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians+0.3our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 15%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more38%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more27%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.06 ERA, 29 Kstarted
SEAGeorge Kirby SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 6.92 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·SEA
Mar 26 at SEA
last game
Mar 26 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
1
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
CLE·SEA
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
6.0
runs / game
4.0
4.0
runs allowed / game
6.0
1−0
season record
0−1
0−0
home record
0−1
1−0
away record
0−0
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
12.0
hits / game
6.0
2.00
home runs / game
4.00
2.0
walks drawn / game
2.0
11.0
batter strikeouts / game
14.0
14.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
11.0
0.00
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

CLE · SEA · 2 days
Cleveland GuardiansSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 5−5
Mar 26at SEACLE 6 − 4
Aug 31, 2025at CLESEA 4 − 2
Aug 30, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 3
Aug 29, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 4
Jun 15, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 0
Jun 14, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 3
Jun 13, 2025at SEASEA 7 − 2
Jun 20, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 3
Jun 19, 2024at CLECLE 8 − 0
Jun 18, 2024at CLESEA 8 − 5

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 26at SEA6 − 4W
Oct 2, 2025vs DET3 − 6L
Oct 1, 2025vs DET6 − 1W
Sep 30, 2025vs DET1 − 2L
Sep 28, 2025vs TEX9 − 8W
Sep 27, 2025vs TEX3 − 2W
Sep 26, 2025vs TEX3 − 7L
Sep 25, 2025vs DET2 − 4L
Sep 24, 2025vs DET5 − 1W
Sep 23, 2025vs DET5 − 2W

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Mar 26vs CLE4 − 6L
Oct 20, 2025at TOR3 − 4L
Oct 19, 2025at TOR2 − 6L
Oct 17, 2025vs TOR6 − 2W
Oct 16, 2025vs TOR2 − 8L
Oct 15, 2025vs TOR4 − 13L
Oct 13, 2025at TOR10 − 3W
Oct 12, 2025at TOR3 − 1W
Oct 10, 2025vs DET3 − 2W
Oct 8, 2025at DET3 − 9L