bayesRatings

Rockies at Marlins

MLB · Friday, Mar 27 · 6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final COL 1 – MIA 2
← MLB / Mar 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL000100000170
MIA02000000281
Team box
COL·MIA
7
hits
8
0
home runs
0
2
walks
2
9
strikeouts
4
125
pitches thrown
108
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Javier SanojaMIA3-3001
Hunter GoodmanCOL2-4000
Jordan BeckCOL1-3001
Connor NorbyMIA2-3000
Owen CaissieMIA1-4101
Jake McCarthyCOL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle Freeland (L)COL4.15222
Sandy Alcantara (W)MIA7.04025
Pete Fairbanks (S)MIA1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: MIA 2 · COL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 32%, MIA 68% · Updated Mar 27

Expected margin
MIA by 1.5
Expected score
MIA 5.5 – 4.0 COL
Expected total
9.4
RockiesThe matchupMarlins
+216Our fair odds−216
4.0Expected runs5.5
−0.78Power rating−0.08
0−0Season record0−0
2−8Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · MIA chance
Our model fair31.7%68.3%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+21632%+15938.6%———
MIAMiami Marlins−21668%−19165.6%———
SpreadMIA by 1.5
COLColorado Rockies+1.5our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Marlins by 1.5 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 17%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 8%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 15 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more48%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more38%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLKyle Freeland SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 5.09 ERA, 12 Kstarted
MIASandy Alcantara SP · last 3 starts: 20.2 IP, 3.05 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·MIA
Sep 28, 2025 at SF
last game
Sep 28, 2025 vs NYM
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
0
games in last 7 days
0
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
COL·MIA
−0.78
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
2−8
last 10
7−3

Rating Trend

COL · MIA · 2 days
Colorado RockiesMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 5−5
Sep 18, 2025at COLMIA 9 − 7
Sep 17, 2025at COLMIA 8 − 4
Sep 16, 2025at COLMIA 6 − 5
Jun 4, 2025at MIACOL 3 − 2
Jun 3, 2025at MIACOL 3 − 2
Jun 2, 2025at MIACOL 6 − 4
Aug 29, 2024at COLMIA 12 − 8
Aug 28, 2024at COLCOL 8 − 2
Aug 27, 2024at COLMIA 9 − 8
Aug 26, 2024at COLCOL 3 − 2

COL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Sep 28, 2025at SF0 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at SF3 − 4L
Sep 26, 2025at SF3 − 6L
Sep 25, 2025at SEA2 − 6L
Sep 24, 2025at SEA2 − 9L
Sep 23, 2025at SEA3 − 4L
Sep 21, 2025vs LAA3 − 1W
Sep 20, 2025vs LAA0 − 3L
Sep 19, 2025vs LAA7 − 6W
Sep 18, 2025vs MIA7 − 9L

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Sep 28, 2025vs NYM4 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025vs NYM0 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025vs NYM6 − 2W
Sep 25, 2025at PHI0 − 1L
Sep 24, 2025at PHI1 − 11L
Sep 23, 2025at PHI6 − 5W
Sep 21, 2025at TEX4 − 2W
Sep 20, 2025at TEX4 − 3W
Sep 19, 2025at TEX6 − 4W
Sep 18, 2025at COL9 − 7W