bayesRatings

Tigers at Padres

MLB · Saturday, Mar 28 · 7:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final DET 0 – SD 3
← MLB / Mar 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET000000000021
SD00201000370
Team box
DET·SD
2
hits
7
0
home runs
0
4
walks
4
13
strikeouts
6
155
pitches thrown
132
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ramon LaureanoSD3-4000
Colt KeithDET2-3000
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD1-3001
Nick CastellanosSD1-4000
Jake CronenworthSD1-3200
Freddy FerminSD1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack Flaherty (L)DET4.14242
Randy Vasquez (W)SD6.02038
Mason Miller (S)SD1.00012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
DET +3
123456789
largest lead: SD 3 · DET 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 48%, SD 52% · Updated Mar 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 4.0 – 4.0 DET
Expected total
8.0
TigersThe matchupPadres
+109Our fair odds−109
4.0Expected runs4.0
+0.09Power rating+0.09
6.5Runs / game2.0
2.0Allowed / game6.5
9.0Hits / game6.5
0.50Home runs / game0.50
6.0Walks drawn / game2.5
2−0Season record0−2
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · SD chance
Our model fair47.9%52.1%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+10948%−10350.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−10952%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Tigers+0.1our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 14%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 17%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%
← DET wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more35%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more25%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETJack Flaherty SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 5.11 ERA, 16 Kstarted
SDRandy Vasquez SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·SD
Mar 27 at SD
last game
Mar 27 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
2
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
DET·SD
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
6.5
runs / game
2.0
2.0
runs allowed / game
6.5
2−0
season record
0−2
0−0
home record
0−2
2−0
away record
0−0
W2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
5−5
9.0
hits / game
6.5
0.50
home runs / game
0.50
6.0
walks drawn / game
2.5
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
1.00
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

DET · SD · 3 days
Detroit TigersSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 4−6
Mar 27at SDDET 5 − 2
Mar 26at SDDET 8 − 2
Apr 23, 2025at DETDET 6 − 0
Apr 22, 2025at DETSD 2 − 0
Apr 21, 2025at DETDET 6 − 4
Sep 5, 2024at SDDET 4 − 3
Sep 4, 2024at SDSD 6 − 5
Sep 2, 2024at SDSD 3 − 0
Jul 23, 2023at DETDET 3 − 1
Jul 22, 2023at DETSD 14 − 3

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Mar 27at SD5 − 2W
Mar 26at SD8 − 2W
Oct 10, 2025at SEA2 − 3L
Oct 8, 2025vs SEA9 − 3W
Oct 7, 2025vs SEA4 − 8L
Oct 5, 2025at SEA2 − 3L
Oct 4, 2025at SEA3 − 2W
Oct 2, 2025at CLE6 − 3W
Oct 1, 2025at CLE1 − 6L
Sep 30, 2025at CLE2 − 1W

SD · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Mar 27vs DET2 − 5L
Mar 26vs DET2 − 8L
Oct 2, 2025at CHC1 − 3L
Oct 1, 2025at CHC3 − 0W
Sep 30, 2025at CHC1 − 3L
Sep 28, 2025vs ARI12 − 4W
Sep 27, 2025vs ARI5 − 1W
Sep 26, 2025vs ARI7 − 4W
Sep 24, 2025vs MIL1 − 3L
Sep 23, 2025vs MIL7 − 0W