bayesRatings

Royals at Braves

MLB · Sunday, Mar 29 · 12:35 PM CT · Truist Park · Final KC 4 – ATL 1
← MLB / Mar 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC001110010470
ATL000000010170
Team box
KC·ATL
7
hits
7
1
home runs
1
3
walks
0
8
strikeouts
5
116
pitches thrown
132
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Drake BaldwinATL2-4111
Carter JensenKC1-3112
Vinnie PasquantinoKC2-4001
Mike YastrzemskiATL2-4000
Ozzie AlbiesATL2-4000
Bobby Witt Jr.KC1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Seth Lugo (W)KC6.15003
Lucas Erceg (S)KC1.01001
Grant Holmes (L)ATL5.05324

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +4
KC +4
123456789
largest lead: ATL 0 · KC 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 47%, ATL 53% · Updated Mar 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATL 4.2 – 4.1 KC
Expected total
8.3
RoyalsThe matchupBraves
+112Our fair odds−112
4.1Expected runs4.2
+0.02Power rating+0.04
1.0Runs / game6.0
6.0Allowed / game1.0
5.0Hits / game10.0
0.50Home runs / game2.00
3.0Walks drawn / game4.0
0−2Season record2−0
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · ATL chance
Our model fair47.2%52.8%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+11247%+13442.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−11253%−16161.7%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals+0.2our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 16%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%
← KC wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more37%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more26%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCSeth Lugo SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 7.71 ERA, 15 Kstarted
ATLGrant Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 8.31 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·ATL
Mar 28 at ATL
last game
Mar 28 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
2
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
KC·ATL
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
1.0
runs / game
6.0
6.0
runs allowed / game
1.0
0−2
season record
2−0
0−0
home record
2−0
0−2
away record
0−0
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
7−3
5.0
hits / game
10.0
0.50
home runs / game
2.00
3.0
walks drawn / game
4.0
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.00
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

KC · ATL · 4 days
Kansas City RoyalsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 7−3
Mar 28at ATLATL 6 − 2
Mar 27at ATLATL 6 − 0
Jul 30, 2025at KCKC 1 − 0
Jul 29, 2025at KCKC 9 − 6
Jul 28, 2025at KCATL 10 − 7
Sep 29, 2024at ATLKC 4 − 2
Sep 28, 2024at ATLATL 2 − 1
Sep 27, 2024at ATLATL 3 − 0
Apr 16, 2023at KCATL 5 − 4
Apr 15, 2023at KCATL 9 − 3

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Mar 28at ATL2 − 6L
Mar 27at ATL0 − 6L
Sep 28, 2025at ATH9 − 2W
Sep 27, 2025at ATH4 − 2W
Sep 26, 2025at ATH3 − 4L
Sep 25, 2025at LAA9 − 4W
Sep 24, 2025at LAA2 − 3L
Sep 23, 2025at LAA8 − 4W
Sep 21, 2025vs TOR5 − 8L
Sep 20, 2025vs TOR2 − 1W

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Mar 28vs KC6 − 2W
Mar 27vs KC6 − 0W
Sep 28, 2025vs PIT4 − 1W
Sep 27, 2025vs PIT1 − 3L
Sep 26, 2025vs PIT3 − 9L
Sep 24, 2025vs WSH3 − 4L
Sep 23, 2025vs WSH3 − 2W
Sep 22, 2025vs WSH11 − 5W
Sep 21, 2025at DET6 − 2W
Sep 20, 2025at DET6 − 5W