bayesRatings

Nets at Hornets

NBA · Wednesday, Oct 22 · 6:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final BKN 117 – CHA 136
← NBA / Oct 22, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BKN32283720117
CHA38393425136
Team box
BKN·CHA
39-88
field goals
48-90
14-40
3-pointers
17-36
25-34
free throws
23-33
38
rebounds
50
25
assists
33
17
turnovers
17
46
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brandon MillerCHA312507
LaMelo BallCHA342028
Miles BridgesCHA3118114
Nic ClaxtonBKN231742
Collin SextonCHA171513
Cam ThomasBKN241512

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +22
BKN +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 22 · BKN 3lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BKN 55%, CHA 45% · Updated Oct 22, 2025

Expected margin
BKN by 3.1
Expected score
BKN 107.0 – 103.9 CHA
Expected total
210.9
NetsThe matchupHornets
−122Our fair odds+122
107.0Expected points103.9
−0.76Power rating−1.20
0−0Season record0−0
3−7Last 101−9
Danny Wolf · Haywood HighsmithOut (2 each)Grant Williams · Josh Green

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BKN chance · CHA chance
Our model fair54.9%45.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BKNBrooklyn Nets−12255%————
CHACharlotte Hornets+12245%————
SpreadBKN by 3.1
BKNBrooklyn Nets−3.1our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets+3.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 210.9
Over210.9our total————
Under210.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Brooklyn Nets by 3.1 expected
Brooklyn Nets by 44 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%
← BKN wins byCHA wins by →
Brooklyn Nets wins by 5 or more48%
Brooklyn Nets wins by 10 or more34%
Brooklyn Nets wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

210.9 expected
170 points: <1%171 points: <1%172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: 1%179 points: 1%180 points: 1%181 points: 1%182 points: 1%183 points: 1%184 points: 1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 2%196 points: 2%197 points: 2%198 points: 2%199 points: 2%200 points: 2%201 points: 2%202 points: 2%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 1%227 points: 1%228 points: 1%229 points: 1%230 points: 1%231 points: 1%232 points: 1%233 points: 1%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: <1%243 points: <1%244 points: <1%245 points: <1%246 points: <1%247 points: <1%248 points: <1%249 points: <1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 200.570%
Total over 210.550%
Total over 220.530%
Total from 201 to 22041%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Brooklyn Nets
GTerance Mannstarted
GCam Thomasstarted
GBen Sarafstarted
FMichael Porter Jr.started
CNic Claxtonstarted
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FBrandon Millerstarted
CRyan Kalkbrennerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BKN·CHA
Apr 13, 2025 vs NY
last game
Apr 13, 2025 at BOS
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 22, 5:00 PM ET
Brooklyn Nets
BKNDanny Wolf · left ankle; sprainOut
BKNHaywood Highsmith · right knee; surgery, injury recoveryOut
Charlotte Hornets
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; surgeryOut
CHAJosh Green · left shoulder; surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season
BKN·CHA
−0.76
rating (0 = average)
−1.20
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
3−7
last 10
1−9

Rating Trend

BKN · CHA · 2 days
Brooklyn NetsCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHA 3−7
Mar 8, 2025at CHACHA 105 − 102
Feb 10, 2025at BKNBKN 97 − 89
Jan 29, 2025at CHABKN 104 − 83
Nov 19, 2024at BKNBKN 116 − 115
Mar 9, 2024at CHACHA 110 − 99
Nov 30, 2023at BKNCHA 129 − 128
Oct 30, 2023at CHABKN 133 − 121
Mar 5, 2023at BKNBKN 102 − 86
Dec 31, 2022at CHABKN 123 − 106
Dec 7, 2022at BKNBKN 122 − 116

BKN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Apr 13, 2025vs NY105 − 113L
Apr 11, 2025at MIN91 − 117L
Apr 10, 2025vs ATL109 − 133L
Apr 8, 2025vs NO119 − 114W
Apr 6, 2025vs TOR109 − 120L
Apr 3, 2025vs MIN90 − 105L
Mar 31, 2025at DAL113 − 109W
Mar 29, 2025at WSH115 − 112W
Mar 28, 2025vs LAC100 − 132L
Mar 26, 2025vs TOR86 − 116L

CHA · Last 10

1−9 · streak L7
Apr 13, 2025at BOS86 − 93L
Apr 11, 2025at BOS94 − 130L
Apr 9, 2025at TOR96 − 126L
Apr 8, 2025vs MEM100 − 124L
Apr 6, 2025vs CHI117 − 131L
Apr 4, 2025vs SAC102 − 125L
Apr 2, 2025at IND105 − 119L
Mar 31, 2025vs UTAH110 − 106W
Mar 30, 2025at NO94 − 98L
Mar 28, 2025at TOR97 − 108L