bayesRatings

Pelicans at Grizzlies

NBA · Wednesday, Oct 22 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final NO 122 – MEM 128
← NBA / Oct 22, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO30372233122
MEM27294131128
Team box
NO·MEM
45-98
field goals
41-80
10-27
3-pointers
11-37
22-31
free throws
35-43
47
rebounds
39
20
assists
20
15
turnovers
17
66
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Ja MorantMEM293533
Zion WilliamsonNO332795
Jaren Jackson Jr.MEM271881
Herbert JonesNO361793
Jordan PooleNO311702
Jeremiah FearsNO181702

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +15
NO +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 10 · NO 15lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 26%, MEM 74% · Updated Oct 22, 2025

Expected margin
MEM by 8.4
Expected score
MEM 122.2 – 113.8 NO
Expected total
235.9
PelicansThe matchupGrizzlies
+287Our fair odds−287
113.8Expected points122.2
−0.70Power rating+0.14
0−0Season record0−0
2−8Last 104−6
Dejounte Murray · Karlo Matkovic
Kevon LooneyOutBrandon Clarke · Scotty Pippen Jr.
Ty Jerome · Vince Williams Jr.
Zach Edey

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · MEM chance
Our model fair25.8%74.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+28726%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−28774%————
SpreadMEM by 8.4
NONew Orleans Pelicans+8.4our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−8.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.9
Over235.9our total————
Under235.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 8.4 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 51 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 50 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 49 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 47 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 48 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 49 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 50 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 51 points: <1%
← NO wins byMEM wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more62%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more47%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.9 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.569%
Total over 235.550%
Total over 245.531%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GJordan Poolestarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CYves Missistarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GKentavious Caldwell-Popestarted
GJa Morantstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FJaylen Wellsstarted
CJock Landalestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·MEM
Apr 13, 2025 vs OKC
last game
Apr 26, 2025 vs OKC
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 22, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOKarlo Matkovic · low back; spasmsOut
NOKevon Looney · left knee; sprainOut
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMVince Williams Jr. · right heel; sorenessOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; surgery recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season
NO·MEM
−0.70
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
2−8
last 10
4−6

Rating Trend

NO · MEM · 2 days
New Orleans PelicansMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MEM 7−3
Mar 9, 2025at NOMEM 107 − 104
Jan 24, 2025at MEMMEM 139 − 126
Dec 27, 2024at NOMEM 132 − 124
Nov 29, 2024at MEMMEM 120 − 109
Feb 12, 2024at MEMNO 96 − 87
Dec 26, 2023at NOMEM 116 − 115
Dec 19, 2023at NOMEM 115 − 113
Oct 25, 2023at MEMNO 111 − 104
Apr 5, 2023at NONO 138 − 131
Dec 31, 2022at MEMMEM 116 − 101

NO · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
Apr 13, 2025vs OKC100 − 115L
Apr 11, 2025vs MIA104 − 153L
Apr 10, 2025at MIL111 − 136L
Apr 8, 2025at BKN114 − 119L
Apr 6, 2025vs MIL107 − 111L
Apr 4, 2025at LAL108 − 124L
Apr 2, 2025at LAC98 − 114L
Mar 30, 2025vs CHA98 − 94W
Mar 28, 2025vs GS95 − 111L
Mar 24, 2025vs PHI112 − 99W

MEM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Apr 26, 2025vs OKC115 − 117L
Apr 24, 2025vs OKC108 − 114L
Apr 22, 2025at OKC99 − 118L
Apr 20, 2025at OKC80 − 131L
Apr 13, 2025vs DAL132 − 97W
Apr 11, 2025at DEN109 − 117L
Apr 10, 2025vs MIN125 − 141L
Apr 8, 2025at CHA124 − 100W
Apr 5, 2025at DET109 − 103W
Apr 3, 2025at MIA110 − 108W