bayesRatings

76ers at Celtics

NBA · Wednesday, Oct 22 · 6:30 PM CT · TD Garden · Final PHI 117 – BOS 116
← NBA / Oct 22, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI26311842117
BOS28233530116
Team box
PHI·BOS
39-85
field goals
41-91
16-41
3-pointers
11-43
23-30
free throws
23-26
40
rebounds
42
23
assists
16
14
turnovers
9
36
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Tyrese MaxeyPHI414026
VJ EdgecombePHI423473
Jaylen BrownBOS362564
Derrick WhiteBOS352534
Neemias QuetaBOS251780
Payton PritchardBOS371652

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +13
PHI +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BOS 13 · PHI 8lead changes: 13

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 14%, BOS 86% · Updated Oct 22, 2025

Expected margin
BOS by 16.3
Expected score
BOS 118.2 – 101.8 PHI
Expected total
220.0
76ersThe matchupCeltics
+620Our fair odds−620
101.8Expected points118.2
−0.61Power rating+1.01
0−0Season record0−0
1−9Last 105−5
Jared McCain · Paul George
Trendon WatfordOutJayson Tatum

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · BOS chance
Our model fair13.9%86.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+62014%————
BOSBoston Celtics−62086%————
SpreadBOS by 16.3
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+16.3our margin————
BOSBoston Celtics−16.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 220.0
Over220.0our total————
Under220.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 16.3 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 53 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 52 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 51 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 50 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 49 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 48 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 47 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 1%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 34 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 35 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 36 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 48 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 49 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 50 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 51 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 52 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 53 points: <1%
← PHI wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more81%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more69%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more54%
Within 5 points either way15%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

220.0 expected
173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 210.568%
Total over 220.549%
Total over 230.529%
Total from 211 to 23039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CJoel Embiidstarted
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
GPayton Pritchardstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·BOS
Apr 13, 2025 vs CHI
last game
May 16, 2025 at NY
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 21, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIJared McCain · right thumb; surgery recoveryOut
PHIPaul George · left knee; surgery recoveryOut
PHITrendon Watford · left hamstring; tightnessOut
Boston Celtics
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
BOSJaylen Brown · left hamstring; strainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season
PHI·BOS
−0.61
rating (0 = average)
+1.01
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
1−9
last 10
5−5

Rating Trend

PHI · BOS · 2 days
Philadelphia 76ersBoston Celtics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 8−2
Mar 6, 2025at BOSBOS 123 − 105
Feb 20, 2025at PHIBOS 124 − 104
Feb 2, 2025at PHIBOS 118 − 110
Dec 25, 2024at BOSPHI 118 − 114
Feb 27, 2024at BOSBOS 117 − 99
Dec 1, 2023at BOSBOS 125 − 119
Nov 15, 2023at PHIBOS 117 − 107
Nov 8, 2023at PHIPHI 106 − 103
May 14, 2023at BOSBOS 112 − 88post
May 11, 2023at PHIBOS 95 − 86post

PHI · Last 10

1−9 · streak L2
Apr 13, 2025vs CHI102 − 122L
Apr 11, 2025vs ATL110 − 124L
Apr 9, 2025at WSH122 − 103W
Apr 7, 2025at MIA105 − 117L
Apr 5, 2025vs MIN109 − 114L
Apr 3, 2025vs MIL113 − 126L
Apr 1, 2025at NY91 − 105L
Mar 30, 2025vs TOR109 − 127L
Mar 29, 2025vs MIA95 − 118L
Mar 26, 2025vs WSH114 − 119L

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 16, 2025at NY81 − 119L
May 14, 2025vs NY127 − 102W
May 12, 2025at NY113 − 121L
May 10, 2025at NY115 − 93W
May 7, 2025vs NY90 − 91L
May 5, 2025vs NY105 − 108L
Apr 29, 2025vs ORL120 − 89W
Apr 27, 2025at ORL107 − 98W
Apr 25, 2025at ORL93 − 95L
Apr 23, 2025vs ORL109 − 100W