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Spurs at Mavericks

NBA · Wednesday, Oct 22 · 8:47 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final SA 125 – DAL 92
← NBA / Oct 22, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA28323332125
DAL2922212092
Team box
SA·DAL
50-87
field goals
31-83
8-20
3-pointers
9-21
17-28
free throws
21-26
50
rebounds
37
24
assists
20
15
turnovers
16
68
points in paint
26
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Victor WembanyamaSA3040151
Anthony DavisDAL3222131
Stephon CastleSA292276
P.J. WashingtonDAL291751
Dylan HarperSA231542
Devin VassellSA311334

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +33
SA +33
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 5 · SA 33lead changes: 13

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 34%, DAL 66% · Updated Oct 22, 2025

Expected margin
DAL by 4.6
Expected score
DAL 118.9 – 114.3 SA
Expected total
233.2
SpursThe matchupMavericks
+191Our fair odds−191
114.3Expected points118.9
−0.39Power rating+0.03
0−0Season record0−0
3−7Last 104−6
De'Aaron Fox · Jeremy Sochan
Kelly Olynyk · Lindy Waters IIIOutDante Exum · Kyrie Irving

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · DAL chance
Our model fair34.4%65.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs+19134%————
DALDallas Mavericks−19166%————
SpreadDAL by 4.6
SASan Antonio Spurs+4.6our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks−4.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.2
Over233.2our total————
Under233.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Mavericks by 4.6 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%
← SA wins byDAL wins by →
Dallas Mavericks wins by 5 or more53%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 10 or more37%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.2 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.568%
Total over 233.548%
Total over 243.529%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted
Dallas Mavericks
GKlay Thompsonstarted
FAnthony Davisstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
CDereck Lively IIstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·DAL
Apr 13, 2025 vs TOR
last game
Apr 13, 2025 at MEM
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 22, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADe'Aaron Fox · right hamstring; strainOut
SAJeremy Sochan · left wrist; sprainOut
SAKelly Olynyk · left heel; surgeryOut
SALindy Waters III · bilateral eye; procedureOut
Dallas Mavericks
DALDante Exum · right knee; injury managementOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALDaniel Gafford · right ankle; sprainDoubtful

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season
SA·DAL
−0.39
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
3−7
last 10
4−6

Rating Trend

SA · DAL · 2 days
San Antonio SpursDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 8−2
Mar 12, 2025at SASA 126 − 116
Mar 10, 2025at SADAL 133 − 129
Nov 16, 2024at DALDAL 110 − 93
Oct 24, 2024at DALDAL 120 − 109
Mar 19, 2024at SADAL 113 − 107
Feb 14, 2024at DALDAL 116 − 93
Dec 23, 2023at DALDAL 144 − 119
Oct 25, 2023at SADAL 126 − 119
Apr 9, 2023at DALSA 138 − 117
Mar 15, 2023at SADAL 137 − 128

SA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Apr 13, 2025vs TOR125 − 118W
Apr 11, 2025at PHX98 − 117L
Apr 9, 2025at GS114 − 111W
Apr 8, 2025at LAC117 − 122L
Apr 6, 2025at POR109 − 120L
Apr 4, 2025vs CLE113 − 114L
Apr 2, 2025at DEN113 − 106W
Apr 1, 2025vs ORL105 − 116L
Mar 30, 2025vs GS106 − 148L
Mar 29, 2025vs BOS111 − 121L

DAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 13, 2025at MEM97 − 132L
Apr 11, 2025vs TOR124 − 102W
Apr 9, 2025vs LAL97 − 112L
Apr 5, 2025at LAC104 − 135L
Apr 4, 2025at LAC91 − 114L
Apr 2, 2025vs ATL120 − 118W
Mar 31, 2025vs BKN109 − 113L
Mar 29, 2025at CHI120 − 119W
Mar 27, 2025at ORL101 − 92W
Mar 25, 2025at NY113 − 128L