bayesRatings

Raptors at Hawks

NBA · Wednesday, Oct 22 · 6:30 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final TOR 138 – ATL 118
← NBA / Oct 22, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR36294528138
ATL34252831118
Team box
TOR·ATL
54-95
field goals
38-90
6-25
3-pointers
10-35
24-29
free throws
32-37
54
rebounds
34
36
assists
25
19
turnovers
16
86
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
RJ BarrettTOR302585
Jalen JohnsonATL352278
Scottie BarnesTOR322269
Trae YoungATL342215
Gradey DickTOR242150
Kristaps PorzingisATL262072

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +29
TOR +29
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 2 · TOR 29lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 33%, ATL 67% · Updated Oct 22, 2025

Expected margin
ATL by 4.9
Expected score
ATL 121.5 – 116.6 TOR
Expected total
238.2
RaptorsThe matchupHawks
+199Our fair odds−199
116.6Expected points121.5
−0.59Power rating−0.13
0−0Season record0−0
5−5Last 105−5
Collin Murray-Boyles · Ja'Kobe WalterOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · ATL chance
Our model fair33.5%66.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors+19933%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−19967%————
SpreadATL by 4.9
TORToronto Raptors+4.9our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−4.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 238.2
Over238.2our total————
Under238.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 4.9 expected
Toronto Raptors by 46 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%
← TOR wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more54%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more38%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

238.2 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 228.567%
Total over 238.548%
Total over 248.530%
Total from 229 to 24837%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted
Atlanta Hawks
GTrae Youngstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted
CKristaps Porzingisstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·ATL
Apr 13, 2025 at SA
last game
Apr 13, 2025 vs ORL
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 21, 5:00 PM ET
TORCollin Murray-Boyles · right forearm; muscle strainOut
TORJa'Kobe Walter · n/a; illnessOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season
TOR·ATL
−0.59
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
5−5
last 10
5−5

Rating Trend

TOR · ATL · 2 days
Toronto RaptorsAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 5−5
Jan 25, 2025at ATLTOR 117 − 94
Jan 23, 2025at ATLTOR 122 − 119
Dec 29, 2024at TORATL 136 − 107
Feb 23, 2024at ATLTOR 123 − 121
Jan 28, 2024at ATLATL 126 − 125
Dec 15, 2023at TORATL 125 − 104
Dec 13, 2023at TORTOR 135 − 128
Jan 14, 2023at TORATL 114 − 103
Nov 19, 2022at ATLATL 124 − 122
Oct 31, 2022at TORTOR 139 − 109

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 13, 2025at SA118 − 125L
Apr 11, 2025at DAL102 − 124L
Apr 9, 2025vs CHA126 − 96W
Apr 6, 2025at BKN120 − 109W
Apr 4, 2025vs DET105 − 117L
Apr 3, 2025vs POR103 − 112L
Apr 1, 2025at CHI118 − 137L
Mar 30, 2025at PHI127 − 109W
Mar 28, 2025vs CHA108 − 97W
Mar 26, 2025at BKN116 − 86W

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Apr 13, 2025vs ORL117 − 105W
Apr 11, 2025at PHI124 − 110W
Apr 10, 2025at BKN133 − 109W
Apr 8, 2025at ORL112 − 119L
Apr 6, 2025vs UTAH147 − 134W
Apr 5, 2025vs NY105 − 121L
Apr 2, 2025at DAL118 − 120L
Apr 1, 2025vs POR113 − 127L
Mar 30, 2025at MIL145 − 124W
Mar 27, 2025at MIA112 − 122L