bayesRatings

Cowboys at Eagles

NFL · Thursday, Sep 4 · 7:20 PM CT · Lincoln Financial Field · Final DAL 20 – PHI 24
← NFL / Sep 4, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL7130020
PHI7143024
Team box
DAL·PHI
307
total yards
302
188
passing yards
144
119
rushing yards
158
22
first downs
20
7-11
third downs
8-13
1
turnovers
0
25:08
time of possession
34:52
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Dak PrescottDAL21/3418800
Jalen HurtsPHI19/2315200
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Javonte WilliamsDAL15542
Jalen HurtsPHI14622
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
CeeDee LambDAL71100
Jahan DotsonPHI3590

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +7
DAL +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHI 4 · DAL 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 16%, PHI 84% · Updated Sep 4, 2025

Expected margin
PHI by 14.9
Expected score
PHI 33.4 – 18.4 DAL
Expected total
51.8
CowboysThe matchupEagles
+543Our fair odds−543
18.4Expected points33.4
−0.18Power rating+1.31
0−0Season record0−0
4−6Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · PHI chance
Our model fair15.5%84.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Cowboys+54316%————
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−54384%————
SpreadPHI by 14.9
DALDallas Cowboys+14.9our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−14.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 51.8
Over51.8our total————
Under51.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Eagles by 14.9 expected
Dallas Cowboys by 49 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 48 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 47 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 46 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 45 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 44 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 43 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 42 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 41 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 40 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 39 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 4%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 1%Tie: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 1 point: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 3 points: 6%Philadelphia Eagles by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 6 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 7 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 8 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 12 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 13 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 14 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 15 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 16 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 17 points: 5%Philadelphia Eagles by 18 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 20 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 21 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 22 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 23 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 24 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 25 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 26 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 27 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 28 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 29 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 30 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 31 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 32 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 34 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 35 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 36 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 37 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 38 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 40 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 41 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 42 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 47 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 48 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 49 points: <1%
← DAL wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 3 or more82%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 7 or more68%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 10 or more60%
Within 3 points either way15%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

51.8 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 44.566%
Total over 51.548%
Total over 58.532%
Total from 45 to 5835%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DALDak Prescott · last 3 games: 63% completions, 185 yds/game, 3 TD, 4 INTstarted
PHIJalen Hurts · last 3 games: 74% completions, 198 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·PHI
Jan 5, 2025 vs WSH
last game
Feb 9, 2025 vs KC
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season
DAL·PHI
−0.18
rating (0 = average)
+1.31
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
4−6
last 10
9−1

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · PHI 4−4
Dec 29, 2024at PHIPHI 41 − 7
Nov 10, 2024at DALPHI 34 − 6
Dec 10, 2023at DALDAL 33 − 13
Nov 5, 2023at PHIPHI 28 − 23
Dec 24, 2022at DALDAL 40 − 34
Oct 16, 2022at PHIPHI 26 − 17
Jan 8, 2022at PHIDAL 51 − 26
Sep 27, 2021at DALDAL 41 − 21

DAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jan 5, 2025vs WSH19 − 23L
Dec 29, 2024at PHI7 − 41L
Dec 22, 2024vs TB26 − 24W
Dec 15, 2024at CAR30 − 14W
Dec 9, 2024vs CIN20 − 27L
Nov 28, 2024vs NYG27 − 20W
Nov 24, 2024at WSH34 − 26W
Nov 18, 2024vs HOU10 − 34L
Nov 10, 2024vs PHI6 − 34L
Nov 3, 2024at ATL21 − 27L

PHI · Last 10

9−1 · streak W6
Feb 9, 2025vs KC40 − 22W
Jan 26, 2025vs WSH55 − 23W
Jan 19, 2025vs LAR28 − 22W
Jan 12, 2025vs GB22 − 10W
Jan 5, 2025vs NYG20 − 13W
Dec 29, 2024vs DAL41 − 7W
Dec 22, 2024at WSH33 − 36L
Dec 15, 2024vs PIT27 − 13W
Dec 8, 2024vs CAR22 − 16W
Dec 1, 2024at BAL24 − 19W