bayesRatings

Chiefs at Chargers

NFL · Friday, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM CT · Corinthians Arena · neutral site · Final KC 21 – LAC 27
← NFL / Sep 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
KC066921
LAC767727
Team box
KC·LAC
347
total yards
394
249
passing yards
304
98
rushing yards
90
18
first downs
22
5-14
third downs
7-13
0
turnovers
0
27:16
time of possession
32:44
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Patrick MahomesKC24/3925810
Justin HerbertLAC25/3431830
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Patrick MahomesKC6571
Omarion HamptonLAC15480
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Hollywood BrownKC10990
Quentin JohnstonLAC5792

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAC +10
KC +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAC 10 · KC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 65%, LAC 35% · Updated Sep 5, 2025

Expected margin
KC by 1.8
Expected score
KC 20.8 – 19.0 LAC
Expected total
39.8
ChiefsThe matchupChargers
−182Our fair odds+182
20.8Expected points19.0
+0.86Power rating+0.23
0−0Season record0−0
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · LAC chance
Our model fair64.5%35.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Chiefs−18265%————
LACLos Angeles Chargers+18235%————
SpreadKC by 1.8
KCKansas City Chiefs−1.8our margin————
LACLos Angeles Chargers+1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.8
Over39.8our total————
Under39.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Chiefs by 1.8 expected
Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 5%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 9%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 7%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: <1%
← KC wins byLAC wins by →
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 3 or more51%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 7 or more33%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 10 or more25%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.8 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.570%
Total over 39.549%
Total over 46.529%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
KCPatrick Mahomes · last 3 games: 66% completions, 226 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 64% completions, 290 yds/game, 6 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·LAC
Feb 9, 2025 at PHI
last game
Jan 11, 2025 at HOU
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season
KC·LAC
+0.86
rating (0 = average)
+0.23
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
8−2
last 10
6−4

Rating Trend

KC · LAC · 2 days
Kansas City ChiefsLos Angeles Chargers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · LAC 1−7
Dec 8, 2024at KCKC 19 − 17
Sep 29, 2024at LACKC 17 − 10
Jan 7, 2024at LACKC 13 − 12
Oct 22, 2023at KCKC 31 − 17
Nov 20, 2022at LACKC 30 − 27
Sep 15, 2022at KCKC 27 − 24
Dec 16, 2021at LACKC 34 − 28
Sep 26, 2021at KCLAC 30 − 24

KC · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Feb 9, 2025at PHI22 − 40L
Jan 26, 2025vs BUF32 − 29W
Jan 18, 2025vs HOU23 − 14W
Jan 5, 2025at DEN0 − 38L
Dec 25, 2024at PIT29 − 10W
Dec 21, 2024vs HOU27 − 19W
Dec 15, 2024at CLE21 − 7W
Dec 8, 2024vs LAC19 − 17W
Nov 29, 2024vs LV19 − 17W
Nov 24, 2024at CAR30 − 27W

LAC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 11, 2025at HOU12 − 32L
Jan 5, 2025at LV34 − 20W
Dec 28, 2024at NE40 − 7W
Dec 19, 2024vs DEN34 − 27W
Dec 15, 2024vs TB17 − 40L
Dec 8, 2024at KC17 − 19L
Dec 1, 2024at ATL17 − 13W
Nov 25, 2024vs BAL23 − 30L
Nov 17, 2024vs CIN34 − 27W
Nov 10, 2024vs TEN27 − 17W