bayesRatings

Cardinals at Saints

NFL · Sunday, Sep 7 · 12:00 PM CT · Caesars Superdome · Final ARI 20 – NO 13
← NFL / Sep 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ARI3143020
NO0100313
Team box
ARI·NO
276
total yards
315
130
passing yards
208
146
rushing yards
107
19
first downs
21
6-13
third downs
5-14
0
turnovers
0
33:46
time of possession
26:14
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Kyler MurrayARI21/2916320
Spencer RattlerNO27/4621400
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Trey BensonARI8690
Alvin KamaraNO11451
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI5711
Juwan JohnsonNO8760

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +10
ARI +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 4 · ARI 10lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 52%, NO 48% · Updated Sep 7, 2025

Expected margin
ARI by 0.1
Expected score
ARI 21.3 – 21.2 NO
Expected total
42.5
CardinalsThe matchupSaints
−110Our fair odds+110
21.3Expected points21.2
−0.10Power rating−0.50
0−0Season record0−0
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · NO chance
Our model fair52.5%47.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Cardinals−11052%————
NONew Orleans Saints+11048%————
SpreadARI by 0.1
ARIArizona Cardinals−0.1our margin————
NONew Orleans Saints+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 42.5
Over42.5our total————
Under42.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Cardinals by 0.1 expected
Arizona Cardinals by 38 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 37 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 36 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 35 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 34 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 33 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 32 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 31 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 30 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 29 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 28 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 27 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 26 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 25 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 24 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 23 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 22 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 21 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 20 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 19 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 18 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 17 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 16 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 15 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 14 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 13 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 12 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 11 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 10 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 9 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 8 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 7 points: 5%Arizona Cardinals by 6 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 5 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 4 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 3 points: 9%Arizona Cardinals by 2 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 7%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 4%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 4%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%
← ARI wins byNO wins by →
Arizona Cardinals wins by 3 or more47%
Arizona Cardinals wins by 7 or more29%
Arizona Cardinals wins by 10 or more21%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

42.5 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 35.569%
Total over 42.548%
Total over 49.529%
Total from 36 to 4940%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
ARIKyler Murray · last 3 games: 68% completions, 255 yds/game, 6 TD, 3 INTstarted
NOSpencer Rattler · last 3 games: 56% completions, 204 yds/game, 2 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·NO
Jan 5, 2025 vs SF
last game
Jan 5, 2025 at TB
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season
ARI·NO
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.50
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
5−5
last 10
3−7

Rating Trend

ARI · NO · 3 days
Arizona CardinalsNew Orleans Saints
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · NO 0−1
Oct 20, 2022at ARIARI 42 − 34

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jan 5, 2025vs SF47 − 24W
Dec 28, 2024at LAR9 − 13L
Dec 22, 2024at CAR30 − 36L
Dec 15, 2024vs NE30 − 17W
Dec 8, 2024vs SEA18 − 30L
Dec 1, 2024at MIN22 − 23L
Nov 24, 2024at SEA6 − 16L
Nov 10, 2024vs NYJ31 − 6W
Nov 3, 2024vs CHI29 − 9W
Oct 27, 2024at MIA28 − 27W

NO · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Jan 5, 2025at TB19 − 27L
Dec 29, 2024vs LV10 − 25L
Dec 23, 2024at GB0 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024vs WSH19 − 20L
Dec 8, 2024at NYG14 − 11W
Dec 1, 2024vs LAR14 − 21L
Nov 17, 2024vs CLE35 − 14W
Nov 10, 2024vs ATL20 − 17W
Nov 3, 2024at CAR22 − 23L
Oct 27, 2024at LAC8 − 26L