bayesRatings

Ravens at Bills

NFL · Sunday, Sep 7 · 7:20 PM CT · Highmark Stadium (Old) · Final BAL 40 – BUF 41
← NFL / Sep 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BAL31714640
BUF7662241
Team box
BAL·BUF
432
total yards
497
194
passing yards
389
238
rushing yards
108
19
first downs
29
6-11
third downs
7-15
1
turnovers
0
25:11
time of possession
34:49
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Lamar JacksonBAL14/1920920
Josh AllenBUF33/4639420
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Derrick HenryBAL181692
James Cook IIIBUF13441
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Zay FlowersBAL71431
Keon ColemanBUF81121

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BUF +15
BAL +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BUF 7 · BAL 15lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 46%, BUF 54% · Updated Sep 7, 2025

Expected margin
BUF by 1.2
Expected score
BUF 27.5 – 26.3 BAL
Expected total
53.8
RavensThe matchupBills
+117Our fair odds−117
26.3Expected points27.5
+1.16Power rating+1.04
0−0Season record0−0
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · BUF chance
Our model fair46.1%53.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Ravens+11746%————
BUFBuffalo Bills−11754%————
SpreadBUF by 1.2
BALBaltimore Ravens+1.2our margin————
BUFBuffalo Bills−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 53.8
Over53.8our total————
Under53.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 1.2 expected
Baltimore Ravens by 41 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 40 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 39 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 38 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 37 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 36 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 35 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 34 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 33 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 32 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 31 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 30 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 29 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 28 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 27 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 26 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 25 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 24 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 23 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 22 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 21 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 20 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 19 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 18 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 17 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 16 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 15 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 14 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 13 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 12 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 11 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 10 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 9 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 8 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 7 points: 5%Baltimore Ravens by 6 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 5 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 4 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 3 points: 9%Baltimore Ravens by 2 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 2%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 7%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 38 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 39 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 40 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 41 points: <1%
← BAL wins byBUF wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more46%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more30%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more23%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

53.8 expected
18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 46.566%
Total over 53.549%
Total over 60.533%
Total from 47 to 6034%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
BALLamar Jackson · last 3 games: 64% completions, 215 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 71% completions, 212 yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·BUF
Jan 19, 2025 at BUF
last game
Jan 26, 2025 at KC
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season
BAL·BUF
+1.16
rating (0 = average)
+1.04
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
7−3
last 10
7−3

Rating Trend

BAL · BUF · 3 days
Baltimore RavensBuffalo Bills
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · BUF 2−1
Jan 19, 2025at BUFBUF 27 − 25post
Sep 29, 2024at BALBAL 35 − 10
Oct 2, 2022at BALBUF 23 − 20

BAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jan 19, 2025at BUF25 − 27L
Jan 11, 2025vs PIT28 − 14W
Jan 4, 2025vs CLE35 − 10W
Dec 25, 2024at HOU31 − 2W
Dec 21, 2024vs PIT34 − 17W
Dec 15, 2024at NYG35 − 14W
Dec 1, 2024vs PHI19 − 24L
Nov 25, 2024at LAC30 − 23W
Nov 17, 2024at PIT16 − 18L
Nov 7, 2024vs CIN35 − 34W

BUF · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jan 26, 2025at KC29 − 32L
Jan 19, 2025vs BAL27 − 25W
Jan 12, 2025vs DEN31 − 7W
Jan 5, 2025at NE16 − 23L
Dec 29, 2024vs NYJ40 − 14W
Dec 22, 2024vs NE24 − 21W
Dec 15, 2024at DET48 − 42W
Dec 8, 2024at LAR42 − 44L
Dec 1, 2024vs SF35 − 10W
Nov 17, 2024vs KC30 − 21W