bayesRatings

Panthers at Jaguars

NFL · Sunday, Sep 7 · 12:00 PM CT · EverBank Stadium · Final CAR 10 – JAX 26
← NFL / Sep 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CAR300710
JAX3170626
Team box
CAR·JAX
255
total yards
378
142
passing yards
178
113
rushing yards
200
15
first downs
19
8-15
third downs
5-12
3
turnovers
1
29:00
time of possession
31:00
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Bryce YoungCAR18/3515412
Trevor LawrenceJAX19/3117811
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Chuba HubbardCAR16570
Travis Etienne Jr.JAX161430
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tetairoa McMillanCAR5680
Brenton StrangeJAX4590

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
JAX +20
CAR +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: JAX 20 · CAR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CAR 35%, JAX 65% · Updated Sep 7, 2025

Expected margin
JAX by 6.5
Expected score
JAX 26.9 – 20.4 CAR
Expected total
47.2
PanthersThe matchupJaguars
+186Our fair odds−186
20.4Expected points26.9
−1.13Power rating−0.76
0−0Season record0−0
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CAR chance · JAX chance
Our model fair34.9%65.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CARCarolina Panthers+18635%————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−18665%————
SpreadJAX by 6.5
CARCarolina Panthers+6.5our margin————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−6.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 47.2
Over47.2our total————
Under47.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Jacksonville Jaguars by 6.5 expected
Carolina Panthers by 46 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 45 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 44 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 43 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 42 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 41 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 40 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 39 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 38 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 37 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 36 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 35 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 34 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 33 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 32 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 31 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 30 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 29 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 28 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 27 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 26 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 25 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 24 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 23 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 22 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 21 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 20 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 19 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 18 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 17 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 16 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 15 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 14 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 13 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 12 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 11 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 10 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 9 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 8 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 7 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 6 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 5 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 4 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 3 points: 7%Carolina Panthers by 2 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 7%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 39 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 40 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 41 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 42 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 43 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 44 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 45 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 46 points: <1%
← CAR wins byJAX wins by →
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 3 or more61%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 7 or more46%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 10 or more37%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.2 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.566%
Total over 47.546%
Total over 54.529%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CARBryce Young · last 3 games: 65% completions, 204 yds/game, 7 TD, 0 INTstarted
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 56% completions, 173 yds/game, 2 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CAR·JAX
Jan 5, 2025 at ATL
last game
Jan 5, 2025 at IND
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season
CAR·JAX
−1.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.76
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
4−6
last 10
2−8

Rating Trend

CAR · JAX · 3 days
Carolina PanthersJacksonville Jaguars
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · JAX 1−0
Dec 31, 2023at JAXJAX 26 − 0

CAR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jan 5, 2025at ATL44 − 38W
Dec 29, 2024at TB14 − 48L
Dec 22, 2024vs ARI36 − 30W
Dec 15, 2024vs DAL14 − 30L
Dec 8, 2024at PHI16 − 22L
Dec 1, 2024vs TB23 − 26L
Nov 24, 2024vs KC27 − 30L
Nov 10, 2024vs NYG20 − 17W
Nov 3, 2024vs NO23 − 22W
Oct 27, 2024at DEN14 − 28L

JAX · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Jan 5, 2025at IND23 − 26L
Dec 29, 2024vs TEN20 − 13W
Dec 22, 2024at LV14 − 19L
Dec 15, 2024vs NYJ25 − 32L
Dec 8, 2024at TEN10 − 6W
Dec 1, 2024vs HOU20 − 23L
Nov 17, 2024at DET6 − 52L
Nov 10, 2024vs MIN7 − 12L
Nov 3, 2024at PHI23 − 28L
Oct 27, 2024vs GB27 − 30L