bayesRatings

Bengals at Browns

NFL · Sunday, Sep 7 · 12:00 PM CT · Huntington Bank Field · Final CIN 17 – CLE 16
← NFL / Sep 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CIN773017
CLE0106016
Team box
CIN·CLE
141
total yards
327
95
passing yards
278
46
rushing yards
49
11
first downs
22
7-14
third downs
9-16
0
turnovers
2
24:11
time of possession
35:49
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Joe BurrowCIN14/2311310
Joe FlaccoCLE31/4529012
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Chase BrownCIN21431
Dylan SampsonCLE12290
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tee HigginsCIN3330
Jerry JeudyCLE5660

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +7
CIN +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 2 · CIN 7lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 68%, CLE 32% · Updated Sep 7, 2025

Expected margin
CIN by 7.7
Expected score
CIN 27.4 – 19.6 CLE
Expected total
47.0
BengalsThe matchupBrowns
−209Our fair odds+209
27.4Expected points19.6
+0.21Power rating−0.86
0−0Season record0−0
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · CLE chance
Our model fair67.7%32.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Bengals−20968%————
CLECleveland Browns+20932%————
SpreadCIN by 7.7
CINCincinnati Bengals−7.7our margin————
CLECleveland Browns+7.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 47.0
Over47.0our total————
Under47.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cincinnati Bengals by 7.7 expected
Cincinnati Bengals by 40 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 39 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 38 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 37 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 36 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 35 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 34 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 33 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 32 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 31 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 30 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 29 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 28 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 27 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 26 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 25 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 24 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 23 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 22 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 21 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 20 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 19 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 18 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 17 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 16 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 15 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 14 points: 5%Cincinnati Bengals by 13 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 12 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 11 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 10 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 9 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 8 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 7 points: 5%Cincinnati Bengals by 6 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 5 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 4 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 3 points: 8%Cincinnati Bengals by 2 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Cleveland Browns by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Browns by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 3 points: 5%Cleveland Browns by 4 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 5 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 6 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 7 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 8 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 9 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 10 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 11 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 12 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 13 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 14 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 15 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 16 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 19 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 20 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 21 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 22 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 23 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 24 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 40 points: <1%
← CIN wins byCLE wins by →
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 3 or more67%
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 7 or more50%
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 10 or more42%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.0 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.566%
Total over 47.546%
Total over 54.529%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CINJoe Burrow · last 3 games: 79% completions, 314 yds/game, 7 TD, 1 INTstarted
CLEJoe Flacco · last 3 games: 66% completions, 289 yds/game, 5 TD, 5 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·CLE
Jan 4, 2025 at PIT
last game
Jan 4, 2025 at BAL
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season
CIN·CLE
+0.21
rating (0 = average)
−0.86
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
6−4
last 10
2−8

Rating Trend

CIN · CLE · 3 days
Cincinnati BengalsCleveland Browns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CLE 4−4
Dec 22, 2024at CINCIN 24 − 6
Oct 20, 2024at CLECIN 21 − 14
Jan 7, 2024at CINCIN 31 − 14
Sep 10, 2023at CLECLE 24 − 3
Dec 11, 2022at CINCIN 23 − 10
Oct 31, 2022at CLECLE 32 − 13
Jan 9, 2022at CLECLE 21 − 16
Nov 7, 2021at CINCLE 41 − 16

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W5
Jan 4, 2025at PIT19 − 17W
Dec 28, 2024vs DEN30 − 24W
Dec 22, 2024vs CLE24 − 6W
Dec 15, 2024at TEN37 − 27W
Dec 9, 2024at DAL27 − 20W
Dec 1, 2024vs PIT38 − 44L
Nov 17, 2024at LAC27 − 34L
Nov 7, 2024at BAL34 − 35L
Nov 3, 2024vs LV41 − 24W
Oct 27, 2024vs PHI17 − 37L

CLE · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Jan 4, 2025at BAL10 − 35L
Dec 29, 2024vs MIA3 − 20L
Dec 22, 2024at CIN6 − 24L
Dec 15, 2024vs KC7 − 21L
Dec 8, 2024at PIT14 − 27L
Dec 2, 2024at DEN32 − 41L
Nov 21, 2024vs PIT24 − 19W
Nov 17, 2024at NO14 − 35L
Nov 3, 2024vs LAC10 − 27L
Oct 27, 2024vs BAL29 − 24W