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Lions at Packers

NFL · Sunday, Sep 7 · 3:25 PM CT · Lambeau Field · Final DET 13 – GB 27
← NFL / Sep 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET033713
GB10701027
Team box
DET·GB
246
total yards
266
200
passing yards
188
46
rushing yards
78
16
first downs
14
5-15
third downs
4-10
1
turnovers
0
35:25
time of possession
24:35
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jared GoffDET31/3922511
Jordan LoveGB16/2218820
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
David MontgomeryDET11250
Josh JacobsGB19661
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Sam LaPortaDET6790
Romeo DoubsGB2680

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GB +21
DET +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GB 21 · DET 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 59%, GB 41% · Updated Sep 7, 2025

Expected margin
DET by 1.9
Expected score
DET 27.8 – 25.9 GB
Expected total
53.7
LionsThe matchupPackers
−146Our fair odds+146
27.8Expected points25.9
+1.31Power rating+0.61
0−0Season record0−0
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · GB chance
Our model fair59.3%40.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Lions−14659%————
GBGreen Bay Packers+14641%————
SpreadDET by 1.9
DETDetroit Lions−1.9our margin————
GBGreen Bay Packers+1.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 53.7
Over53.7our total————
Under53.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Lions by 1.9 expected
Detroit Lions by 38 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 36 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 35 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 33 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 32 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 30 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 29 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 28 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 27 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 26 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 25 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 22 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 19 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 15 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 13 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 9 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 5%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 9%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Green Bay Packers by 1 point: 2%Green Bay Packers by 2 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 3 points: 7%Green Bay Packers by 4 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 5 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 6 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 7 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 8 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 9 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 10 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 11 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 12 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 13 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 14 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 15 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 16 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 17 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 18 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 19 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 20 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 21 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 22 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 23 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 24 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 25 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 26 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 27 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 28 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 29 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 30 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 31 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 32 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 33 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 34 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 35 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 36 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 37 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 38 points: <1%
← DET wins byGB wins by →
Detroit Lions wins by 3 or more52%
Detroit Lions wins by 7 or more33%
Detroit Lions wins by 10 or more25%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

53.7 expected
18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 46.566%
Total over 53.548%
Total over 60.532%
Total from 47 to 6034%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 71% completions, 282 yds/game, 5 TD, 5 INTstarted
GBJordan Love · last 3 games: 61% completions, 155 yds/game, 1 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·GB
Jan 18, 2025 vs WSH
last game
Jan 12, 2025 at PHI
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season
DET·GB
+1.31
rating (0 = average)
+0.61
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
8−2
last 10
5−5

Rating Trend

DET · GB · 3 days
Detroit LionsGreen Bay Packers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · GB 2−6
Dec 5, 2024at DETDET 34 − 31
Nov 3, 2024at GBDET 24 − 14
Nov 23, 2023at DETGB 29 − 22
Sep 28, 2023at GBDET 34 − 20
Jan 8, 2023at GBDET 20 − 16
Nov 6, 2022at DETDET 15 − 9
Jan 9, 2022at DETDET 37 − 30
Sep 20, 2021at GBGB 35 − 17

DET · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Jan 18, 2025vs WSH31 − 45L
Jan 5, 2025vs MIN31 − 9W
Dec 30, 2024at SF40 − 34W
Dec 22, 2024at CHI34 − 17W
Dec 15, 2024vs BUF42 − 48L
Dec 5, 2024vs GB34 − 31W
Nov 28, 2024vs CHI23 − 20W
Nov 24, 2024at IND24 − 6W
Nov 17, 2024vs JAX52 − 6W
Nov 10, 2024at HOU26 − 23W

GB · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Jan 12, 2025at PHI10 − 22L
Jan 5, 2025vs CHI22 − 24L
Dec 29, 2024at MIN25 − 27L
Dec 23, 2024vs NO34 − 0W
Dec 15, 2024at SEA30 − 13W
Dec 5, 2024at DET31 − 34L
Nov 28, 2024vs MIA30 − 17W
Nov 24, 2024vs SF38 − 10W
Nov 17, 2024at CHI20 − 19W
Nov 3, 2024vs DET14 − 24L