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Texans at Rams

NFL · Sunday, Sep 7 · 3:25 PM CT · SoFi Stadium · Final HOU 9 – LAR 14
← NFL / Sep 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU36009
LAR077014
Team box
HOU·LAR
265
total yards
296
151
passing yards
224
114
rushing yards
72
18
first downs
18
2-9
third downs
7-13
2
turnovers
1
31:25
time of possession
28:35
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
C.J. StroudHOU19/2718801
Matthew StaffordLAR21/2924510
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Nick ChubbHOU13600
Kyren WilliamsLAR18661
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jayden HigginsHOU2320
Puka NacuaLAR101300

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAR +6
HOU +6
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAR 5 · HOU 6lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 39%, LAR 61% · Updated Sep 7, 2025

Expected margin
LAR by 3.0
Expected score
LAR 22.4 – 19.4 HOU
Expected total
41.9
TexansThe matchupRams
+157Our fair odds−157
19.4Expected points22.4
+0.12Power rating+0.30
0−0Season record0−0
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · LAR chance
Our model fair38.9%61.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Texans+15739%————
LARLos Angeles Rams−15761%————
SpreadLAR by 3.0
HOUHouston Texans+3our margin————
LARLos Angeles Rams−3our margin————
Totalwe expect 41.9
Over41.9our total————
Under41.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Rams by 3.0 expected
Houston Texans by 42 points: <1%Houston Texans by 41 points: <1%Houston Texans by 40 points: <1%Houston Texans by 39 points: <1%Houston Texans by 38 points: <1%Houston Texans by 37 points: <1%Houston Texans by 36 points: <1%Houston Texans by 35 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: <1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 32 points: <1%Houston Texans by 31 points: <1%Houston Texans by 30 points: <1%Houston Texans by 29 points: <1%Houston Texans by 28 points: 1%Houston Texans by 27 points: <1%Houston Texans by 26 points: <1%Houston Texans by 25 points: <1%Houston Texans by 24 points: 1%Houston Texans by 23 points: 1%Houston Texans by 22 points: <1%Houston Texans by 21 points: 1%Houston Texans by 20 points: 1%Houston Texans by 19 points: 1%Houston Texans by 18 points: 1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 1%Houston Texans by 16 points: 1%Houston Texans by 15 points: <1%Houston Texans by 14 points: 2%Houston Texans by 13 points: <1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 1%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 2%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 8 points: 2%Houston Texans by 7 points: 4%Houston Texans by 6 points: 3%Houston Texans by 5 points: 2%Houston Texans by 4 points: 3%Houston Texans by 3 points: 8%Houston Texans by 2 points: 2%Houston Texans by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 7%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 42 points: <1%
← HOU wins byLAR wins by →
Los Angeles Rams wins by 3 or more51%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 7 or more35%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 10 or more27%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

41.9 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 34.570%
Total over 41.549%
Total over 48.530%
Total from 35 to 4840%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
HOUC.J. Stroud · last 3 games: 70% completions, 192 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 60% completions, 241 yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·LAR
Jan 18, 2025 at KC
last game
Jan 19, 2025 at PHI
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season
HOU·LAR
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
+0.30
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
5−5
last 10
7−3

Rating Trend

HOU · LAR · 3 days
Houston TexansLos Angeles Rams
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · LAR 1−0
Oct 31, 2021at HOULAR 38 − 22

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 18, 2025at KC14 − 23L
Jan 11, 2025vs LAC32 − 12W
Jan 5, 2025at TEN23 − 14W
Dec 25, 2024vs BAL2 − 31L
Dec 21, 2024at KC19 − 27L
Dec 15, 2024vs MIA20 − 12W
Dec 1, 2024at JAX23 − 20W
Nov 24, 2024vs TEN27 − 32L
Nov 18, 2024at DAL34 − 10W
Nov 10, 2024vs DET23 − 26L

LAR · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jan 19, 2025at PHI22 − 28L
Jan 13, 2025vs MIN27 − 9W
Jan 5, 2025vs SEA25 − 30L
Dec 28, 2024vs ARI13 − 9W
Dec 22, 2024at NYJ19 − 9W
Dec 12, 2024at SF12 − 6W
Dec 8, 2024vs BUF44 − 42W
Dec 1, 2024at NO21 − 14W
Nov 24, 2024vs PHI20 − 37L
Nov 17, 2024at NE28 − 22W