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Raiders at Patriots

NFL · Sunday, Sep 7 · 12:00 PM CT · Gillette Stadium · Final LV 20 – NE 13
← NFL / Sep 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LV7010320
NE730313
Team box
LV·NE
389
total yards
336
333
passing yards
276
56
rushing yards
60
21
first downs
18
5-13
third downs
4-14
1
turnovers
1
29:55
time of possession
30:05
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Geno SmithLV24/3436211
Drake MayeNE30/4628711
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Ashton JeantyLV19381
TreVeyon HendersonNE5270
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Brock BowersLV51030
Kayshon BoutteNE61030

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NE +10
LV +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NE 3 · LV 10lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LV 51%, NE 49% · Updated Sep 7, 2025

Expected margin
NE by 0.1
Expected score
NE 18.7 – 18.6 LV
Expected total
37.3
RaidersThe matchupPatriots
−104Our fair odds+104
18.6Expected points18.7
−0.65Power rating−0.98
0−0Season record0−0
2−8Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LV chance · NE chance
Our model fair51.0%49.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LVLas Vegas Raiders−10451%————
NENew England Patriots+10449%————
SpreadNE by 0.1
LVLas Vegas Raiders+0.1our margin————
NENew England Patriots−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 37.3
Over37.3our total————
Under37.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New England Patriots by 0.1 expected
Las Vegas Raiders by 39 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 5%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 9%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New England Patriots by 1 point: 2%New England Patriots by 2 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 7%New England Patriots by 4 points: 2%New England Patriots by 5 points: 2%New England Patriots by 6 points: 4%New England Patriots by 7 points: 4%New England Patriots by 8 points: 3%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 2%New England Patriots by 11 points: 1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 1%New England Patriots by 13 points: 1%New England Patriots by 14 points: 1%New England Patriots by 15 points: 1%New England Patriots by 16 points: 1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 2%New England Patriots by 18 points: 1%New England Patriots by 19 points: <1%New England Patriots by 20 points: 1%New England Patriots by 21 points: 1%New England Patriots by 22 points: 1%New England Patriots by 23 points: 1%New England Patriots by 24 points: 1%New England Patriots by 25 points: 1%New England Patriots by 26 points: <1%New England Patriots by 27 points: <1%New England Patriots by 28 points: <1%New England Patriots by 29 points: <1%New England Patriots by 30 points: <1%New England Patriots by 31 points: 1%New England Patriots by 32 points: <1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: <1%New England Patriots by 35 points: <1%New England Patriots by 36 points: <1%New England Patriots by 37 points: <1%New England Patriots by 38 points: <1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%
← LV wins byNE wins by →
New England Patriots wins by 3 or more43%
New England Patriots wins by 7 or more27%
New England Patriots wins by 10 or more20%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

37.3 expected
4 points: <1%5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: 1%14 points: <1%15 points: 1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 2%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 3%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: <1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 30.569%
Total over 37.548%
Total over 44.528%
Total from 31 to 4441%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LVGeno Smith · last 3 games: 73% completions, 232 yds/game, 7 TD, 2 INTstarted
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 58% completions, 126 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LV·NE
Jan 5, 2025 vs LAC
last game
Jan 5, 2025 vs BUF
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season
LV·NE
−0.65
rating (0 = average)
−0.98
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
2−8
last 10
3−7

Rating Trend

LV · NE · 3 days
Las Vegas RaidersNew England Patriots
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · NE 0−2
Oct 15, 2023at LVLV 21 − 17
Dec 18, 2022at LVLV 30 − 24

LV · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Jan 5, 2025vs LAC20 − 34L
Dec 29, 2024at NO25 − 10W
Dec 22, 2024vs JAX19 − 14W
Dec 16, 2024vs ATL9 − 15L
Dec 8, 2024at TB13 − 28L
Nov 29, 2024at KC17 − 19L
Nov 24, 2024vs DEN19 − 29L
Nov 17, 2024at MIA19 − 34L
Nov 3, 2024at CIN24 − 41L
Oct 27, 2024vs KC20 − 27L

NE · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jan 5, 2025vs BUF23 − 16W
Dec 28, 2024vs LAC7 − 40L
Dec 22, 2024at BUF21 − 24L
Dec 15, 2024at ARI17 − 30L
Dec 1, 2024vs IND24 − 25L
Nov 24, 2024at MIA15 − 34L
Nov 17, 2024vs LAR22 − 28L
Nov 10, 2024at CHI19 − 3W
Nov 3, 2024at TEN17 − 20L
Oct 27, 2024vs NYJ25 − 22W