bayesRatings

Dolphins at Colts

NFL · Sunday, Sep 7 · 12:00 PM CT · Lucas Oil Stadium · Final MIA 8 – IND 33
← NFL / Sep 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA00088
IND31731033
Team box
MIA·IND
211
total yards
418
133
passing yards
262
78
rushing yards
156
12
first downs
27
5-10
third downs
7-15
3
turnovers
0
21:17
time of possession
38:43
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Tua TagovailoaMIA14/2311412
Daniel JonesIND22/2927210
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
De'Von AchaneMIA7550
Jonathan TaylorIND18710
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tyreek HillMIA4400
Michael Pittman Jr.IND6801

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +30
MIA +30
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 30 · MIA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 49%, IND 51% · Updated Sep 7, 2025

Expected margin
MIA by 1.0
Expected score
MIA 23.3 – 22.3 IND
Expected total
45.6
DolphinsThe matchupColts
+102Our fair odds−102
23.3Expected points22.3
−0.10Power rating−0.36
0−0Season record0−0
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · IND chance
Our model fair49.4%50.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Dolphins+10249%————
INDIndianapolis Colts−10251%————
SpreadMIA by 1.0
MIAMiami Dolphins−1our margin————
INDIndianapolis Colts+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.6
Over45.6our total————
Under45.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Dolphins by 1.0 expected
Miami Dolphins by 38 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 5%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 9%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 7%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: <1%
← MIA wins byIND wins by →
Miami Dolphins wins by 3 or more49%
Miami Dolphins wins by 7 or more31%
Miami Dolphins wins by 10 or more23%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.6 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.568%
Total over 45.548%
Total over 52.530%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
MIATua Tagovailoa · last 3 games: 69% completions, 247 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTstarted
INDDaniel Jones · last 3 games: 65% completions, 209 yds/game, 2 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·IND
Jan 5, 2025 at NYJ
last game
Jan 5, 2025 vs JAX
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season
MIA·IND
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.36
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
6−4
last 10
4−6

Rating Trend

MIA · IND · 3 days
Miami DolphinsIndianapolis Colts
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · IND 2−0
Oct 20, 2024at INDIND 16 − 10
Oct 3, 2021at MIAIND 27 − 17

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 5, 2025at NYJ20 − 32L
Dec 29, 2024at CLE20 − 3W
Dec 22, 2024vs SF29 − 17W
Dec 15, 2024at HOU12 − 20L
Dec 8, 2024vs NYJ32 − 26W
Nov 28, 2024at GB17 − 30L
Nov 24, 2024vs NE34 − 15W
Nov 17, 2024vs LV34 − 19W
Nov 11, 2024at LAR23 − 15W
Nov 3, 2024at BUF27 − 30L

IND · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jan 5, 2025vs JAX26 − 23W
Dec 29, 2024at NYG33 − 45L
Dec 22, 2024vs TEN38 − 30W
Dec 15, 2024at DEN13 − 31L
Dec 1, 2024at NE25 − 24W
Nov 24, 2024vs DET6 − 24L
Nov 17, 2024at NYJ28 − 27W
Nov 10, 2024vs BUF20 − 30L
Nov 3, 2024at MIN13 − 21L
Oct 27, 2024at HOU20 − 23L