bayesRatings

Giants at Commanders

NFL · Sunday, Sep 7 · 12:00 PM CT · Northwest Stadium · Final NYG 6 – WSH 21
← NFL / Sep 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NYG03306
WSH770721
Team box
NYG·WSH
231
total yards
432
157
passing yards
212
74
rushing yards
220
17
first downs
25
4-16
third downs
4-11
0
turnovers
0
30:32
time of possession
29:28
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Russell WilsonNYG17/3716800
Jayden DanielsWSH19/3023310
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Russell WilsonNYG8440
Jacory Croskey-MerrittWSH10821
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Malik NabersNYG5710
Deebo Samuel Sr.WSH7770

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +15
NYG +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 15 · NYG 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYG 18%, WSH 82% · Updated Sep 7, 2025

Expected margin
WSH by 10.9
Expected score
WSH 29.9 – 19.0 NYG
Expected total
48.9
GiantsThe matchupCommanders
+444Our fair odds−444
19.0Expected points29.9
−0.95Power rating+0.34
0−0Season record0−0
1−9Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYG chance · WSH chance
Our model fair18.4%81.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYGNew York Giants+44418%————
WSHWashington Commanders−44482%————
SpreadWSH by 10.9
NYGNew York Giants+10.9our margin————
WSHWashington Commanders−10.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 48.9
Over48.9our total————
Under48.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Commanders by 10.9 expected
New York Giants by 48 points: <1%New York Giants by 47 points: <1%New York Giants by 46 points: <1%New York Giants by 45 points: <1%New York Giants by 44 points: <1%New York Giants by 43 points: <1%New York Giants by 42 points: <1%New York Giants by 41 points: <1%New York Giants by 40 points: <1%New York Giants by 39 points: <1%New York Giants by 38 points: <1%New York Giants by 37 points: <1%New York Giants by 36 points: <1%New York Giants by 35 points: <1%New York Giants by 34 points: <1%New York Giants by 33 points: <1%New York Giants by 32 points: <1%New York Giants by 31 points: <1%New York Giants by 30 points: <1%New York Giants by 29 points: <1%New York Giants by 28 points: <1%New York Giants by 27 points: <1%New York Giants by 26 points: <1%New York Giants by 25 points: <1%New York Giants by 24 points: <1%New York Giants by 23 points: <1%New York Giants by 22 points: <1%New York Giants by 21 points: <1%New York Giants by 20 points: <1%New York Giants by 19 points: <1%New York Giants by 18 points: <1%New York Giants by 17 points: 1%New York Giants by 16 points: <1%New York Giants by 15 points: <1%New York Giants by 14 points: 1%New York Giants by 13 points: <1%New York Giants by 12 points: <1%New York Giants by 11 points: <1%New York Giants by 10 points: 1%New York Giants by 9 points: <1%New York Giants by 8 points: 1%New York Giants by 7 points: 2%New York Giants by 6 points: 2%New York Giants by 5 points: 1%New York Giants by 4 points: 2%New York Giants by 3 points: 5%New York Giants by 2 points: 1%New York Giants by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 2%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 6%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 4%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 4%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 9 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 11 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 13 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 15 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 16 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 4%Washington Commanders by 18 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 19 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 21 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 22 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 24 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 25 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 26 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 29 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 32 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 38 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 39 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 40 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 41 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 42 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 43 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 44 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 45 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 46 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 47 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 48 points: <1%
← NYG wins byWSH wins by →
Washington Commanders wins by 3 or more72%
Washington Commanders wins by 7 or more58%
Washington Commanders wins by 10 or more49%
Within 3 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.9 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.568%
Total over 48.548%
Total over 55.531%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NYGRussell Wilson · last 3 games: 62% completions, 208 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted
WSHJayden Daniels · last 3 games: 66% completions, 274 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYG·WSH
Jan 5, 2025 at PHI
last game
Jan 26, 2025 at PHI
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season
NYG·WSH
−0.95
rating (0 = average)
+0.34
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
1−9
last 10
7−3

Rating Trend

NYG · WSH · 3 days
New York GiantsWashington Commanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · WSH 5−3
Nov 3, 2024at NYGWSH 27 − 22
Sep 15, 2024at WSHWSH 21 − 18
Nov 19, 2023at WSHNYG 31 − 19
Oct 22, 2023at NYGNYG 14 − 7
Dec 18, 2022at WSHNYG 20 − 12
Dec 4, 2022at NYGWSH 20 − 20
Jan 9, 2022at NYGWSH 22 − 7
Sep 16, 2021at WSHWSH 30 − 29

NYG · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Jan 5, 2025at PHI13 − 20L
Dec 29, 2024vs IND45 − 33W
Dec 22, 2024at ATL7 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024vs BAL14 − 35L
Dec 8, 2024vs NO11 − 14L
Nov 28, 2024at DAL20 − 27L
Nov 24, 2024vs TB7 − 30L
Nov 10, 2024at CAR17 − 20L
Nov 3, 2024vs WSH22 − 27L
Oct 28, 2024at PIT18 − 26L

WSH · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jan 26, 2025at PHI23 − 55L
Jan 18, 2025at DET45 − 31W
Jan 12, 2025at TB23 − 20W
Jan 5, 2025at DAL23 − 19W
Dec 29, 2024vs ATL30 − 24W
Dec 22, 2024vs PHI36 − 33W
Dec 15, 2024at NO20 − 19W
Dec 1, 2024vs TEN42 − 19W
Nov 24, 2024vs DAL26 − 34L
Nov 14, 2024at PHI18 − 26L