bayesRatings

Steelers at Jets

NFL · Sunday, Sep 7 · 12:00 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · Final PIT 34 – NYJ 32
← NFL / Sep 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PIT71001734
NYJ9107632
Team box
PIT·NYJ
271
total yards
394
218
passing yards
212
53
rushing yards
182
19
first downs
23
4-10
third downs
7-14
0
turnovers
1
25:17
time of possession
34:43
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Aaron RodgersPIT22/3024440
Justin FieldsNYJ16/2221810
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jaylen WarrenPIT11370
Breece HallNYJ191070
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
DK MetcalfPIT4830
Garrett WilsonNYJ7951

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYJ +9
PIT +9
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NYJ 9 · PIT 5lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 61%, NYJ 39% · Updated Sep 7, 2025

Expected margin
PIT by 2.5
Expected score
PIT 20.6 – 18.1 NYJ
Expected total
38.6
SteelersThe matchupJets
−156Our fair odds+156
20.6Expected points18.1
+0.15Power rating−0.61
0−0Season record0−0
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · NYJ chance
Our model fair60.9%39.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Steelers−15661%————
NYJNew York Jets+15639%————
SpreadPIT by 2.5
PITPittsburgh Steelers−2.5our margin————
NYJNew York Jets+2.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 38.6
Over38.6our total————
Under38.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Steelers by 2.5 expected
Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 5%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 9%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New York Jets by 1 point: 2%New York Jets by 2 points: 3%New York Jets by 3 points: 7%New York Jets by 4 points: 2%New York Jets by 5 points: 2%New York Jets by 6 points: 4%New York Jets by 7 points: 3%New York Jets by 8 points: 2%New York Jets by 9 points: 1%New York Jets by 10 points: 1%New York Jets by 11 points: 1%New York Jets by 12 points: 1%New York Jets by 13 points: 1%New York Jets by 14 points: 1%New York Jets by 15 points: 1%New York Jets by 16 points: 1%New York Jets by 17 points: 2%New York Jets by 18 points: 1%New York Jets by 19 points: <1%New York Jets by 20 points: 1%New York Jets by 21 points: 1%New York Jets by 22 points: <1%New York Jets by 23 points: <1%New York Jets by 24 points: 1%New York Jets by 25 points: <1%New York Jets by 26 points: <1%New York Jets by 27 points: <1%New York Jets by 28 points: <1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: <1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: <1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%
← PIT wins byNYJ wins by →
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 3 or more53%
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 7 or more35%
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 10 or more27%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

38.6 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 31.570%
Total over 38.549%
Total over 45.529%
Total from 32 to 4541%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 66% completions, 214 yds/game, 5 TD, 3 INTstarted
NYJJustin Fields · last 3 games: 54% completions, 48 yds/game, 0 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·NYJ
Jan 11, 2025 at BAL
last game
Jan 5, 2025 vs MIA
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season
PIT·NYJ
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.61
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
4−6
last 10
3−7

Rating Trend

PIT · NYJ · 3 days
Pittsburgh SteelersNew York Jets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · NYJ 1−1
Oct 20, 2024at PITPIT 37 − 15
Oct 2, 2022at PITNYJ 24 − 20

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Jan 11, 2025at BAL14 − 28L
Jan 4, 2025vs CIN17 − 19L
Dec 25, 2024vs KC10 − 29L
Dec 21, 2024at BAL17 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024at PHI13 − 27L
Dec 8, 2024vs CLE27 − 14W
Dec 1, 2024at CIN44 − 38W
Nov 21, 2024at CLE19 − 24L
Nov 17, 2024vs BAL18 − 16W
Nov 10, 2024at WSH28 − 27W

NYJ · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jan 5, 2025vs MIA32 − 20W
Dec 29, 2024at BUF14 − 40L
Dec 22, 2024vs LAR9 − 19L
Dec 15, 2024at JAX32 − 25W
Dec 8, 2024at MIA26 − 32L
Dec 1, 2024vs SEA21 − 26L
Nov 17, 2024vs IND27 − 28L
Nov 10, 2024at ARI6 − 31L
Oct 31, 2024vs HOU21 − 13W
Oct 27, 2024at NE22 − 25L