bayesRatings

49ers at Seahawks

NFL · Sunday, Sep 7 · 3:05 PM CT · Lumen Field · Final SF 17 – SEA 13
← NFL / Sep 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SF7001017
SEA0100313
Team box
SF·SEA
384
total yards
230
265
passing yards
146
119
rushing yards
84
24
first downs
14
7-14
third downs
3-10
2
turnovers
2
37:58
time of possession
22:02
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Brock PurdySF26/3527722
Sam DarnoldSEA16/2315000
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Christian McCaffreySF22690
Zach CharbonnetSEA12471
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Ricky PearsallSF41080
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA91240

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +7
SF +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SEA 3 · SF 7lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 40%, SEA 60% · Updated Sep 7, 2025

Expected margin
SEA by 3.2
Expected score
SEA 24.9 – 21.7 SF
Expected total
46.6
49ersThe matchupSeahawks
+151Our fair odds−151
21.7Expected points24.9
+0.00Power rating+0.14
0−0Season record0−0
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · SEA chance
Our model fair39.8%60.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco 49ers+15140%————
SEASeattle Seahawks−15160%————
SpreadSEA by 3.2
SFSan Francisco 49ers+3.2our margin————
SEASeattle Seahawks−3.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.6
Over46.6our total————
Under46.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 3.2 expected
San Francisco 49ers by 42 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 41 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 40 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 8%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 7%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 40 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 41 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 42 points: <1%
← SF wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more52%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more36%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more28%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.6 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.568%
Total over 46.548%
Total over 53.530%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SFBrock Purdy · last 3 games: 63% completions, 277 yds/game, 5 TD, 4 INTstarted
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 61% completions, 263 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·SEA
Jan 5, 2025 at ARI
last game
Jan 5, 2025 at LAR
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season
SF·SEA
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
3−7
last 10
6−4

Rating Trend

SF · SEA · 3 days
San Francisco 49ersSeattle Seahawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · SEA 3−6
Nov 17, 2024at SFSEA 20 − 17
Oct 10, 2024at SEASF 36 − 24
Dec 10, 2023at SFSF 28 − 16
Nov 23, 2023at SEASF 31 − 13
Jan 14, 2023at SFSF 41 − 23post
Dec 15, 2022at SEASF 21 − 13
Sep 18, 2022at SFSF 27 − 7
Dec 5, 2021at SEASEA 30 − 23
Oct 3, 2021at SFSEA 28 − 21

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Jan 5, 2025at ARI24 − 47L
Dec 30, 2024vs DET34 − 40L
Dec 22, 2024at MIA17 − 29L
Dec 12, 2024vs LAR6 − 12L
Dec 8, 2024vs CHI38 − 13W
Dec 1, 2024at BUF10 − 35L
Nov 24, 2024at GB10 − 38L
Nov 17, 2024vs SEA17 − 20L
Nov 10, 2024at TB23 − 20W
Oct 27, 2024vs DAL30 − 24W

SEA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jan 5, 2025at LAR30 − 25W
Dec 26, 2024at CHI6 − 3W
Dec 22, 2024vs MIN24 − 27L
Dec 15, 2024vs GB13 − 30L
Dec 8, 2024at ARI30 − 18W
Dec 1, 2024at NYJ26 − 21W
Nov 24, 2024vs ARI16 − 6W
Nov 17, 2024at SF20 − 17W
Nov 3, 2024vs LAR20 − 26L
Oct 27, 2024vs BUF10 − 31L