bayesRatings

Buccaneers at Falcons

NFL · Sunday, Sep 7 · 12:00 PM CT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Final TB 23 – ATL 20
← NFL / Sep 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TB0107623
ATL733720
Team box
TB·ATL
260
total yards
358
159
passing yards
289
101
rushing yards
69
16
first downs
23
7-14
third downs
6-15
0
turnovers
0
24:48
time of possession
35:12
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Baker MayfieldTB17/3216730
Michael Penix Jr.ATL27/4229810
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Baker MayfieldTB5390
Tyler AllgeierATL10240
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Emeka EgbukaTB4672
Bijan RobinsonATL61001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +7
TB +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 7 · TB 7lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 60%, ATL 40% · Updated Sep 7, 2025

Expected margin
TB by 4.9
Expected score
TB 27.4 – 22.5 ATL
Expected total
49.9
BuccaneersThe matchupFalcons
−148Our fair odds+148
27.4Expected points22.5
+0.40Power rating−0.30
0−0Season record0−0
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · ATL chance
Our model fair59.6%40.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−14860%————
ATLAtlanta Falcons+14840%————
SpreadTB by 4.9
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−4.9our margin————
ATLAtlanta Falcons+4.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 49.9
Over49.9our total————
Under49.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4.9 expected
Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 40 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 39 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 5%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 9%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 6%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 40 points: <1%
← TB wins byATL wins by →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 3 or more60%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 7 or more41%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 10 or more33%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

49.9 expected
15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 2%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 42.568%
Total over 49.548%
Total over 56.532%
Total from 43 to 5636%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
TBBaker Mayfield · last 3 games: 77% completions, 255 yds/game, 9 TD, 1 INTstarted
ATLMichael Penix Jr. · last 3 games: 58% completions, 246 yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·ATL
Jan 12, 2025 vs WSH
last game
Jan 5, 2025 vs CAR
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season
TB·ATL
+0.40
rating (0 = average)
−0.30
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
6−4
last 10
4−6

Rating Trend

TB · ATL · 3 days
Tampa Bay BuccaneersAtlanta Falcons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · ATL 4−4
Oct 27, 2024at TBATL 31 − 26
Oct 3, 2024at ATLATL 36 − 30
Dec 10, 2023at ATLTB 29 − 25
Oct 22, 2023at TBATL 16 − 13
Jan 8, 2023at ATLATL 30 − 17
Oct 9, 2022at TBTB 21 − 15
Dec 5, 2021at ATLTB 30 − 17
Sep 19, 2021at TBTB 48 − 25

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 12, 2025vs WSH20 − 23L
Jan 5, 2025vs NO27 − 19W
Dec 29, 2024vs CAR48 − 14W
Dec 22, 2024at DAL24 − 26L
Dec 15, 2024at LAC40 − 17W
Dec 8, 2024vs LV28 − 13W
Dec 1, 2024at CAR26 − 23W
Nov 24, 2024at NYG30 − 7W
Nov 10, 2024vs SF20 − 23L
Nov 4, 2024at KC24 − 30L

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jan 5, 2025vs CAR38 − 44L
Dec 29, 2024at WSH24 − 30L
Dec 22, 2024vs NYG34 − 7W
Dec 16, 2024at LV15 − 9W
Dec 8, 2024at MIN21 − 42L
Dec 1, 2024vs LAC13 − 17L
Nov 17, 2024at DEN6 − 38L
Nov 10, 2024at NO17 − 20L
Nov 3, 2024vs DAL27 − 21W
Oct 27, 2024at TB31 − 26W