bayesRatings

Titans at Broncos

NFL · Sunday, Sep 7 · 3:05 PM CT · Empower Field at Mile High · Final TEN 12 – DEN 20
← NFL / Sep 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TEN363012
DEN373720
Team box
TEN·DEN
133
total yards
317
62
passing yards
166
71
rushing yards
151
7
first downs
20
2-14
third downs
6-15
2
turnovers
4
28:04
time of possession
31:56
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Cam WardTEN12/2811200
Bo NixDEN25/4017612
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Tony PollardTEN18600
RJ HarveyDEN6700
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tony PollardTEN1290
Courtland SuttonDEN6611

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +8
TEN +8
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 8 · TEN 3lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEN 16%, DEN 84% · Updated Sep 7, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 13.8
Expected score
DEN 28.8 – 15.0 TEN
Expected total
43.7
TitansThe matchupBroncos
+506Our fair odds−506
15.0Expected points28.8
−1.12Power rating+0.32
0−0Season record0−0
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEN chance · DEN chance
Our model fair16.5%83.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TENTennessee Titans+50616%————
DENDenver Broncos−50684%————
SpreadDEN by 13.8
TENTennessee Titans+13.8our margin————
DENDenver Broncos−13.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.7
Over43.7our total————
Under43.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Broncos by 13.8 expected
Tennessee Titans by 49 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 48 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 47 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 46 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 45 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 44 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 43 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 42 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 41 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 40 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 39 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 38 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 37 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 36 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 35 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 34 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 33 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 32 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 31 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 30 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 29 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 28 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 27 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 26 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 25 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 24 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 23 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 22 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 21 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 20 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 19 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 18 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 17 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 16 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 15 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 14 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 13 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 12 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 11 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 10 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 9 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 8 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 7 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 6 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 5 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 4 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 3 points: 4%Tennessee Titans by 2 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 1%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 6%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 11 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 13 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 15 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 19 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 22 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 25 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 26 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 27 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 29 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 32 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 35 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 38 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 39 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 40 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 41 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 42 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 43 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 44 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 45 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 46 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 47 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 48 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 49 points: <1%
← TEN wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Broncos wins by 3 or more79%
Denver Broncos wins by 7 or more65%
Denver Broncos wins by 10 or more57%
Within 3 points either way17%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.7 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.569%
Total over 43.548%
Total over 50.530%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
TENCam Ward · no recent games on recordstarted
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 77% completions, 228 yds/game, 8 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEN·DEN
Jan 5, 2025 vs HOU
last game
Jan 12, 2025 at BUF
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season
TEN·DEN
−1.12
rating (0 = average)
+0.32
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
2−8
last 10
5−5

Rating Trend

TEN · DEN · 3 days
Tennessee TitansDenver Broncos
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · DEN 0−1
Nov 13, 2022at TENTEN 17 − 10

TEN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Jan 5, 2025vs HOU14 − 23L
Dec 29, 2024at JAX13 − 20L
Dec 22, 2024at IND30 − 38L
Dec 15, 2024vs CIN27 − 37L
Dec 8, 2024vs JAX6 − 10L
Dec 1, 2024at WSH19 − 42L
Nov 24, 2024at HOU32 − 27W
Nov 17, 2024vs MIN13 − 23L
Nov 10, 2024at LAC17 − 27L
Nov 3, 2024vs NE20 − 17W

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 12, 2025at BUF7 − 31L
Jan 5, 2025vs KC38 − 0W
Dec 28, 2024at CIN24 − 30L
Dec 19, 2024at LAC27 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024vs IND31 − 13W
Dec 2, 2024vs CLE41 − 32W
Nov 24, 2024at LV29 − 19W
Nov 17, 2024vs ATL38 − 6W
Nov 10, 2024at KC14 − 16L
Nov 3, 2024at BAL10 − 41L