bayesRatings

Vikings at Bears

NFL · Monday, Sep 8 · 7:15 PM CT · Soldier Field · Final MIN 27 – CHI 24
← NFL / Sep 8, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN0602127
CHI737724
Team box
MIN·CHI
254
total yards
317
134
passing yards
198
120
rushing yards
119
14
first downs
20
3-12
third downs
3-12
1
turnovers
1
27:07
time of possession
32:53
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
J.J. McCarthyMIN13/2014321
Caleb WilliamsCHI21/3521010
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jordan MasonMIN15680
Caleb WilliamsCHI6581
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Aaron Jones Sr.MIN3441
DJ MooreCHI3680

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +11
MIN +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 11 · MIN 10lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 65%, CHI 35% · Updated Sep 8, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 4.1
Expected score
MIN 21.2 – 17.1 CHI
Expected total
38.4
VikingsThe matchupBears
−189Our fair odds+189
21.2Expected points17.1
+0.53Power rating−0.43
0−0Season record0−0
8−2Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · CHI chance
Our model fair65.3%34.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Vikings−18965%————
CHIChicago Bears+18935%————
SpreadMIN by 4.1
MINMinnesota Vikings−4.1our margin————
CHIChicago Bears+4.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 38.4
Over38.4our total————
Under38.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Vikings by 4.1 expected
Minnesota Vikings by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 5%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 9%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 7%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 11 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 13 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 19 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 22 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 40 points: <1%
← MIN wins byCHI wins by →
Minnesota Vikings wins by 3 or more58%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 7 or more39%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 10 or more31%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

38.4 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 31.569%
Total over 38.548%
Total over 45.528%
Total from 32 to 4541%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
MINJ.J. McCarthy · no recent games on recordstarted
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 65% completions, 201 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·CHI
Jan 13, 2025 at LAR
last game
Jan 5, 2025 at GB
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season
MIN·CHI
+0.53
rating (0 = average)
−0.43
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
8−2
last 10
1−9

Rating Trend

MIN · CHI · 4 days
Minnesota VikingsChicago Bears
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CHI 1−7
Dec 16, 2024at MINMIN 30 − 12
Nov 24, 2024at CHIMIN 30 − 27
Nov 27, 2023at MINCHI 12 − 10
Oct 15, 2023at CHIMIN 19 − 13
Jan 8, 2023at CHIMIN 29 − 13
Oct 9, 2022at MINMIN 29 − 22
Jan 9, 2022at MINMIN 31 − 17
Dec 20, 2021at CHIMIN 17 − 9

MIN · Last 10

8−2 · streak L2
Jan 13, 2025at LAR9 − 27L
Jan 5, 2025at DET9 − 31L
Dec 29, 2024vs GB27 − 25W
Dec 22, 2024at SEA27 − 24W
Dec 16, 2024vs CHI30 − 12W
Dec 8, 2024vs ATL42 − 21W
Dec 1, 2024vs ARI23 − 22W
Nov 24, 2024at CHI30 − 27W
Nov 17, 2024at TEN23 − 13W
Nov 10, 2024at JAX12 − 7W

CHI · Last 10

1−9 · streak W1
Jan 5, 2025at GB24 − 22W
Dec 26, 2024vs SEA3 − 6L
Dec 22, 2024vs DET17 − 34L
Dec 16, 2024at MIN12 − 30L
Dec 8, 2024at SF13 − 38L
Nov 28, 2024at DET20 − 23L
Nov 24, 2024vs MIN27 − 30L
Nov 17, 2024vs GB19 − 20L
Nov 10, 2024vs NE3 − 19L
Nov 3, 2024at ARI9 − 29L