bayesRatings

Rangers at Penguins

NHL · Saturday, Oct 11 · 6:00 PM CT · PPG Paints Arena · Final NYR 6 – PIT 1
← NHL / Oct 11, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYR1326
PIT0101
Team box
NYR·PIT
30
shots
19
2 of 4
power play
0 of 4
48.0
faceoff %
52.0
30
hits
14
12
blocked shots
18
8
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Adam FoxNYR214
Sam CarrickNYR024
Adam EdstromNYR022
Noah LabaNYR021
Mika ZibanejadNYR104
Will CuylleNYR103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Igor ShesterkinNYR1918.947
Arturs SilovsPIT3024.800

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +5
NYR +5
P1P2P3
largest lead: PIT 0 · NYR 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYR 50%, PIT 50% · Updated Oct 11, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYR 3.4 – 3.3 PIT
Expected total
6.7
RangersThe matchupPenguins
+101Our fair odds−101
3.4Expected goals3.3
+0.08Power rating−0.20
2.0Goals / game3.5
1.5Allowed / game1.5
29.0Shots / game29.5
56.2Faceoff %47.1
31.0Hits / game22.5
1−1Season record2−0
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYR chance · PIT chance
Our model fair49.9%50.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYRNew York Rangers+10150%————
PITPittsburgh Penguins−10150%————
Spreadabout even
NYRNew York Rangers−0.1our margin————
PITPittsburgh Penguins+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.7
Over6.7our total————
Under6.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Rangers by 6 goals: 1%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 2%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 6%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 12%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 10%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 18%Pittsburgh Penguins by 1 goal: 22%Pittsburgh Penguins by 2 goals: 9%Pittsburgh Penguins by 3 goals: 11%Pittsburgh Penguins by 4 goals: 5%Pittsburgh Penguins by 5 goals: 2%Pittsburgh Penguins by 6 goals: <1%
← NYR wins byPIT wins by →
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more32%
New York Rangers wins by 3 or more22%
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.7 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 20%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.564%
Total over 6.553%
Total over 7.533%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYRIgor Shesterkin G · last 5 starts: .952 save %, 1.61 GAAstarted
PITArturs Silovs G · last 5 starts: .894 save %, 2.64 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYR·PIT
Oct 9, 2025 at BUF
last game
Oct 9, 2025 vs NYI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
NYR·PIT
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.20
2.0
goals / game
3.5
1.5
goals allowed / game
1.5
1−1
season record
2−0
0−1
home record
1−0
1−0
away record
1−0
W1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
7−3
29.0
shots / game
29.5
56.2
faceoff %
47.1
31.0
hits / game
22.5
16.5
blocked shots / game
16.0
4.5
takeaways / game
3.5
15.5
giveaways / game
20.5

Rating Trend

NYR · PIT · 4 days
New York RangersPittsburgh Penguins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 3−7
Oct 7, 2025at NYRPIT 3 − 0
Feb 23, 2025at PITNYR 5 − 3
Feb 7, 2025at NYRPIT 3 − 2
Dec 6, 2024at NYRNYR 4 − 2
Oct 9, 2024at PITNYR 6 − 0
Apr 1, 2024at NYRPIT 5 − 2
Mar 16, 2024at PITNYR 7 − 4
Nov 22, 2023at PITNYR 1 − 0
Mar 18, 2023at NYRNYR 6 − 0
Mar 16, 2023at NYRNYR 4 − 2

NYR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 9, 2025at BUF4 − 0W
Oct 7, 2025vs PIT0 − 3L
Apr 17, 2025vs TB4 − 0W
Apr 14, 2025at FLA5 − 3W
Apr 12, 2025at CAR3 − 7L
Apr 10, 2025at NYI9 − 2W
Apr 9, 2025vs PHI5 − 8L
Apr 7, 2025vs TB1 − 5L
Apr 5, 2025at NJ0 − 4L
Apr 2, 2025vs MIN5 − 4W

PIT · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Oct 9, 2025vs NYI4 − 3W
Oct 7, 2025at NYR3 − 0W
Apr 17, 2025vs WSH5 − 2W
Apr 13, 2025vs BOS1 − 4L
Apr 11, 2025at NJ4 − 2W
Apr 8, 2025vs CHI5 − 0W
Apr 6, 2025at CHI1 − 3L
Apr 5, 2025at DAL5 − 3W
Apr 3, 2025at STL4 − 5L
Mar 30, 2025vs OTT1 − 0W