bayesRatings

Capitals at Islanders

NHL · Saturday, Oct 11 · 6:00 PM CT · UBS Arena · Final WSH 4 – NYI 2
← NHL / Oct 11, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
WSH2204
NYI0112
Team box
WSH·NYI
29
shots
36
0 of 2
power play
2 of 3
47.5
faceoff %
52.5
23
hits
33
20
blocked shots
22
6
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Aliaksei ProtasWSH215
Bo HorvatNYI025
Kyle PalmieriNYI022
Jakob ChychrunWSH020
Matthew SchaeferNYI108
Martin FehervaryWSH103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Logan ThompsonWSH3634.944
Ilya SorokinNYI2925.862

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYI +4
WSH +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: NYI 0 · WSH 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 52%, NYI 48% · Updated Oct 11, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WSH 3.2 – 2.8 NYI
Expected total
6.0
CapitalsThe matchupIslanders
−110Our fair odds+110
3.2Expected goals2.8
+0.20Power rating−0.18
1.0Goals / game3.0
3.0Allowed / game4.0
36.0Shots / game37.0
50.0Faceoff %58.2
35.0Hits / game22.0
0−1Season record0−1
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · NYI chance
Our model fair52.3%47.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Capitals−11052%————
NYINew York Islanders+11048%————
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Capitals−0.4our margin————
NYINew York Islanders+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Capitals by 6 goals: 1%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 3%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 7%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 14%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 11%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 17%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 25%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 8%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 8%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 4%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 1%New York Islanders by 6 goals: <1%
← WSH wins byNYI wins by →
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more36%
Washington Capitals wins by 3 or more25%
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
WSHLogan Thompson G · last 5 starts: .904 save %, 2.63 GAAstarted
NYIIlya Sorokin G · last 5 starts: .921 save %, 2.40 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·NYI
Oct 8, 2025 vs BOS
last game
Oct 9, 2025 at PIT
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
WSH·NYI
+0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.18
1.0
goals / game
3.0
3.0
goals allowed / game
4.0
0−1
season record
0−1
0−1
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−1
L1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
3−7
36.0
shots / game
37.0
50.0
faceoff %
58.2
35.0
hits / game
22.0
11.0
blocked shots / game
13.0
3.0
takeaways / game
4.0
15.0
giveaways / game
16.0

Rating Trend

WSH · NYI · 4 days
Washington CapitalsNew York Islanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYI 4−6
Apr 15, 2025at NYIWSH 3 − 1
Apr 6, 2025at NYINYI 4 − 1
Nov 29, 2024at WSHWSH 5 − 4 OT
Dec 29, 2023at NYINYI 5 − 1
Dec 20, 2023at WSHWSH 3 − 2 OT
Nov 11, 2023at NYIWSH 4 − 1
Nov 2, 2023at WSHNYI 3 − 0
Apr 10, 2023at WSHWSH 5 − 2
Mar 29, 2023at WSHNYI 2 − 1 SO
Mar 11, 2023at NYIWSH 5 − 1

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Oct 8, 2025vs BOS1 − 3L
May 15, 2025vs CAR1 − 3L
May 12, 2025at CAR2 − 5L
May 10, 2025at CAR0 − 4L
May 8, 2025vs CAR3 − 1W
May 6, 2025vs CAR1 − 2L
Apr 30, 2025vs MTL4 − 1W
Apr 27, 2025at MTL5 − 2W
Apr 25, 2025at MTL3 − 6L
Apr 23, 2025vs MTL3 − 1W

NYI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Oct 9, 2025at PIT3 − 4L
Apr 17, 2025at CBJ1 − 6L
Apr 15, 2025vs WSH1 − 3L
Apr 13, 2025at NJ1 − 0W
Apr 12, 2025at PHI3 − 4L
Apr 10, 2025vs NYR2 − 9L
Apr 8, 2025at NSH6 − 7L
Apr 6, 2025vs WSH4 − 1W
Apr 4, 2025vs MIN3 − 1W
Apr 1, 2025vs TB1 − 4L